Table 1.
Projected unemployment scenarios in NZ as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and response to it (extracted from a NZ Treasury Report) [23, 30].
Table 2.
Associations between unemployment and CVD incidence used in this modeling study adapted from the literature (Stuckler et al 2009 [10]).
Table 3.
Key epidemiology and economic parameters for the established BODE3 CVD model [27–29].
Fig 1.
Scenarios around the COVID-19 pandemic related additional absolute unemployment rates in 2021 used in the BODE3 CVD model by age, sex and ethnicity in NZa,b,c,d.
a These unemployment rates were the differences in the projected unemployment rates between having the COVID-19 pandemic (Scenarios in Table 1) and having not had the COVID-19 pandemic (Baseline Scenario in Table 1). They were also adjusted by the unemployment rates by age, sex and ethnicity in 2010–2014 reported by the NZ Government. b All unemployment rates followed a log-normal distribution with an assumed 20% standard deviation (due to all health responses and economic outlooks being highly uncertain). c We only extracted unemployment rates for these age-groups as they are in typical working age-groups, and are potentially impacted by the CVD burden. But we acknowledge this limitation further in the Discussion. d The age-groups in this Table do not exactly match the ones in Table 2, but we used the closest age-group for RR and additional unemployment rate in our model. Note that in 2021, unemployment rates are similar across scenarios (see Table 1). Furthermore, in the Treasury economic models, the projected unemployment levels take into account the impact from GDP and other services such as impacts from the continued loss of international students and international tourists.
Table 4.
Health loss (in HALYs) results for the base case (most likely unemployment scenario) (3% discount rate for the remaining life of the NZ population alive in 2011) for various COVID-19 pandemic-induced unemployment scenarios from the NZ Treasury.
Table 5.
Additional health system costs for the base case (most likely unemployment scenario) (3% discount rate for the remaining life of the NZ population alive in 2011).