Fig 1.
Evolution of COVID-19 infections in Minnesota (see S1 Video for more detail).
Fig 2.
Total county-to-county trips per day.
Fig 3.
Reported infections by county.
(a) March 22, 2020. (b) June 22, 2020.
Fig 4.
Comparison of predicted and reported infected individuals.
Black vertical lines show the intervals in ∏ρ. (a) Total reported and predicted infections. (b) Hennepin County (Minneapolis). (c) Ramsey County (St. Paul).
Fig 5.
Effects of travel on COVID-19 infections.
Fig 6.
Percent change in infections for different travel scenarios.
The “observed” scenario is the base travel scenario. (a) [Observed]—[No travel]. (b) [Pre-pandemic travel]—[Observed].
Fig 7.
Calibrated reproductive number and detection probability.
Fig 8.
Calibrated parameters by county (see S1 Video for more detail).
(a) Reproductive number, r, on May 1, 2020. (b) Average detection probability, λ.
Fig 9.
Effect of 2-week λ intervals on calibrated parameters.
(a) Effects on reproductive number. (b) Effects on detection probability.
Fig 10.
Sensitivity of calibrated parameters to variations in σ and ℓ.
(a) Sensitivity of ri(t) to σ. (b) Sensitivity of λi(t) to σ. (c) Sensitivity of ri(t)(t) to ℓ. (d) Sensitivity of λi(t) to ℓ.
Table 1.
Sensitivity of ξ with respect to σ and ℓ.
Fig 11.
(a) Predicted infections using rate of spread of June 21. (b) Predicted infections using rate of spread of April 1.
Fig 12.
Predictions of removed (either recovered or deceased) individuals.
(a) Comparison of predicted and reported removed individuals. (b) Percent of removed population.