Fig 1.
Location of the study area, workshop venue, administrative districts and protected areas.
The Protected Areas are numbered as 1-Loliondo GCA, 2-Lake Natron GCA, 3-Enduimet WMA, 4-Kilimanjaro National Park, 5-Arusha National Park, 6-Meru Forest Plantation, 7-Monduli Juu Open Area, 8-Monduli Forest Reserve, 9-Burko Open Area, 10-Mto wa Mbu GCA, 11-Burunge WMA, 12-Lolkisale GCA, 13-Simanjiro GCA, 14-Nou Forest Reserve, 15-Lake Manyara National Park, 16-NCA, A-Mount Meru, B-Ol Doinyo Lengai Mountain. Protected Areas source-World Database of Protected Areas.
Fig 2.
Location of officially designated natural, cultural and biocultural heritage ‘sites’ in the NCA, Ngorongoro Lengai UNESCO Global Geopark, and Lake Natron GCA, and the associated land cover in 2018.
The names of the geological and cultural/biocultural heritage sites are: 1-Volcanic Pillars, 2-Engaruka Ruins, 3-Elephant Cave, 4-Empakai Engaruka, 5-Kisulisuli, 6-Shimo la Mungu, 7-Oldonyo Lengai, 8-Engaresero Museum, 9-Engaresero Footprints, 10-Engaresero HotSpring, 11-Erosion Forms, 12-Three Crown Hills, 13-Grizmek Grave, 14-Malanja Depression, 15-Seneto Spring, 16-Lake Magadi, 17-Ngoitoktok, 18-Lerai Forest, 19-Datoga Chief Grave, 20-Datoga Ritual Tree, 21-Old German House, 22-Olduvai Museum, 23-Soitoo Green-pink Quartzite Hill, 24-Nasera Rock, 25-Biotite Hill, 26-Maasai Cultural Well, 27-Olkarean Gorges, 28-Vulture Breeding Site, 29-Suspended Stone Bridge, 30-Olmoti Crater, 31-Kulangol Cultural Village, 32-Olmoti Waterfall, 33-Olcheni Lengai Empakai, 34-Seneto Cultural Boma, 35-Breathing Holes, 36-Endulen-Oreteti Tree, 37-Laetoli Museum, 38-Laetoli Footprints, 39-Traditional Beehives, 40-Gneiss Site, 41-Eyasi Geological Site, 42-Datoga Village, 43-Mangola Spring, 44-Datoga Blacksmith Site, 45-Maifola Hot Water Spring, 46-Mumba Rock, 47-Hotspring Giledabeshta, 48-Hadzabe Camp, 49-Makonde Carving. Land cover source-Copernicus Global Land Service. Protected Areas source-World Database of Protected Areas.
Table 1.
Identified drivers of LULCC patterns in the study area from 1959–1999 (‘the past’) and from 2000–2018 (‘the present’), and ranking in order of importance.
Rank orders LULCC drivers from the driver perceived to have the greatest influence on LULCC, which is given the first number, to the driver perceived to have the lowest influence on LULCC, which is given the last number. Mentions per rank is the number of times a driver was cited by stakeholders expressed as a percentage.
Fig 3.
Timeline of events identified by stakeholders as key in shaping LULCC in the study area from 1959 to 2018.
Color shades represent events with socioeconomic (light green) or environmental (dark green) impacts.
Fig 4.
(a) Land cover categories in northern Tanzania in 2018 (b) and anticipated future land cover change in 2030 as envisaged under scenario one: developed economy with degraded land, (c) scenario two: developed economy with healthy land, (d) scenario three: developing economy with degraded land, and (e) scenario four: developing economy with healthy land. The Protected Areas are numbered as 1-Loliondo GCA, 2-Lake Natron GCA, 3-Enduimet WMA, 4-Kilimanjaro National Park, 5-Arusha National Park, 6-Meru Forest Plantation, 7-Monduli Juu Open Area, 8-Monduli Forest Reserve, 9-Burko Open Area, 10-Mto wa Mbu GCA, 11-Burunge WMA, 12-Lolkisale GCA, 13-Simanjiro GCA, 14-Nou Forest Reserve, 15-Lake Manyara National Park, 16-Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA). Land cover source-Copernicus Global Land Service. Protected Areas source-World Database of Protected Areas.
Table 2.
Area for land cover categories (km2) at the 2018 baseline map, and for the four land cover change scenarios in the year 2030.
Fig 5.
Stakeholders’ perceptions of desirable and undesirable aspects of socioeconomic development and land use and land cover changes in the future (up to 2030).