Fig 1.
Schematic representation of the disease phases and at which stages individuals become infective and potentially symptomatic.
Fig 2.
Groups of susceptible and immunized individuals.
Schematic representation of different compartments of susceptible individuals. Unvaccinated susceptibles are either unvaccinable (NV) or wait to be vaccinated (U). Vaccinated susceptibles (V) remain susceptible immediately after vaccination. After the vaccination outcome manifested, they remain susceptible at different levels if immunization failed (NI), only partial immunization was achieved (PI), or they developed ADE. Individuals that are successfully immunized are no longer susceptible (R). Arrows show how individuals move between groups. All susceptibles can be infected (not indicated).
Fig 3.
Susceptible individuals are infected and ultimately recover or die. Individuals are infected either after or before the outcome of the vaccination is determined. In the latter case the outcome of the vaccine is not determined upon infection (they might get vaccinated before or during the infection), or they are not vaccinated before or during the infection (this includes unvaccinable individuals that get infected).
Fig 4.
Onset of the vaccination campaign.
Plots show (total) incidence (panels A-B), prevalence per 100000 individuals (panels C, D), and mortality, i.e., the cumulative deaths (D), per 100000 individuals (panels C, D) as a functions of time t for different onsets of the vaccination campaign (colors). In panels E and F the effect of increased ADE-induced mortality is shown (dashed lines vs. solid lines
). (Note the values of
only affects mortality, not incidence.) As a baseline comparison, the black lines show incidence and mortality in the absence of the vaccine. The vertical dashed line indicates time t = 450 at which contact reductions are lifted. Seasonal fluctuations in R0 are shown by the grey dashed lines corresponding to the y-axis on the right-hand side. Plot parameters are given in S1–S3 Tables.
Fig 5.
As Fig 4, but for different vaccination coverage (colors).
Fig 6.
As Fig 4, but for different vaccination rates (colors), i.e., average waiting times (shown in legend) to get vaccinated.
Fig 7.
Vaccination schedule and time to immune response.
As Fig 4, but for different average waiting times (DA) until the vaccinations manifests its outcome (immunizing effect), corresponding to vaccination schedules and times to immune response.
Fig 8.
As Fig 4, but for different vaccination coverage and effectiveness (quality) of the vaccine as summarized in Table 1. No ADE-induced increased mortality is assumed.
Fig 9.
ADE-induced increased mortality.
As Fig 8, but for different levels of ADE-induced mortality instead of vaccination coverage. A vaccination coverage of 60% was assumed. Panels show only mortality. For the corresponding incidence see Fig 8.
Table 1.
Vaccine effectiveness.