Fig 1.
Short-term macroeconomic equilibrium.
COVID-19 shock in aggregate supply (AS) and aggregate demand (AD). Source: Own elaboration, from Dornbusch et al. (2011); Blanchard, O. (2013), Galí (2015, 2018); Mankiw, Phelps, and Romer (1995); Stiglitz (2015) and Samuelson (1958). FP unemployment indicates the unemployment of production factors.
Fig 2.
Economic activity index, based on energy demand (Ye) in average kilowatts/day (KW).
In index with the base date March 6 = 100. Analysis period from the start of the pandemic March 6 to June 7, 2020. Source: COES. Own elaboration.
Fig 3.
Economic activity index, from employment (Yw), and investment and employment search (Yi), for Google search.
In index with the base date March 6 = 100. Analysis period from the start of the pandemic March 6 to June 7, 2020. Source: Google trends. Own elaboration.
Table 1.
Descriptive statistics of the variables of economic activity and determining factors.
Daily data for the period 06/03/2020 to 07/06/2020.
Fig 4.
Evolution of time series associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.
Confirmed cases, deaths, the basic number of spread, and the doubling time of cases. Source: MINSA. Own elaboration.
Fig 5.
Evolution of time series associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.
Confirmed cases, deaths, the basic number of spread, and the doubling time of cases. Source: MINSA. Own elaboration.
Fig 6.
Evolution of time series associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.
Confirmed cases, deaths, the basic number of spread, and the doubling time of cases. Source: MINSA. Own elaboration.
Fig 7.
Evolution of time series associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.
Confirmed cases, deaths, the basic number of spread, and the doubling time of cases. Source: MINSA. Own elaboration.
Fig 8.
Evolution of economic activity (Yen and Yin) and the basic number of spread (Re).
In index and normalized with the base date March 6 = 100. Analysis period from the start of the pandemic March 6 to June 7, 2020. Source: MINSA, COES, and Google. Own elaboration. n indicates that the series has been normalized.
Fig 9.
Dispersion and correlation propagation basic number of COVID-19 and economic activity (level and growth rate).
Source: Own elaboration. NOTE: Ye and Yi have been chosen as indicators of economic activity. ***, **, * significant at 1%, 5%, and 10%. For n = 62; for n = 94 the results are less satisfactory for the first weeks that are volatile, typical of a Pandemic.
Table 2.
Comparison of health policies for Latin America.
Table 3.
Cointegration with the Bounds test.
Table 4.
Estimation of the ARDL model.
Table 5.
Estimation of the ECM (model V).
Table 6.
Long-term model (with elasticities).