Fig 1.
Schematic of the DDRP model framework.
1) Input data sets (blue shaded boxes) include a) data on the developmental requirements, climatic tolerances (optional), and emergence times of population cohorts of a species (Table 1), and b) daily minimum and maximum temperature (Tmin and Tmax, respectively) data. 2) Hollow blue boxes indicate calculations conducted on each daily time step, where a dashed outline represents calculations for climatic suitability. Phenological event map (PEM) calculations for each life stage (E = egg, L = larva, P = pupa, A = adult) are shown in green font. A full generation is counted when adults lay eggs (in red), and the number of generations subsequently increases. 3) After the daily time step completes, DDRP combines the results across all cohorts and exports the model outputs as multi-layer raster (“.tif”) and summary map (“.png”) files (orange shaded boxes). Orange shaded boxes with a dashed line represent model outputs for PEMs and climatic suitability.
Table 1.
Species-specific parameters used in DDRP with corresponding values for Epiphyas postvittana (light brown apple moth) and Neoleucinodes elegantalis (small tomato borer).
Table 2.
Comparison of the characteristics, parameters, and outputs of climatic suitability models in DDRP and CLIMEX.
Fig 2.
Phenological event maps generated by DDRP for (A) Epiphyas postvittana (light brown apple moth) and (B) Neoleucinodes elegantalis (small tomato borer) in CONUS in 2018. The map for E. postvittana shows the average date of egg laying by first generation females, whereas the map for N. elegantalis shows the average date of first generation beginning of egg hatch. Both maps include estimates of climatic suitability, where long-term establishment is indicated by areas not under moderate (excl.-moderate) or severe (excl.-severe) climate stress exclusion.
Table 3.
Parameter values used to produce a CLIMEX model for Epiphyas postvittana (light brown apple moth) and Neoleucinodes elegantalis (small tomato borer).
Fig 3.
Predictions of cold stress, heat stress, and climatic suitability for Epiphyas postvittana (light brown apple moth) in CONUS produced by CLIMEX (A‒C) and DDRP (D‒F) based on 1961‒1990 climate normals. Climatic suitability is estimated by the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) in CLIMEX, and by combining cold and heat stress exclusions in DDRP. In DDRP, long-term establishment is indicated by areas not under moderate (excl.-moderate) or severe (excl.-severe) climate stress exclusion. Cold and heat stress units in DDRP were scaled from 0 to 1000 to match the scale in CLIMEX. CLIMEX maps were generated for this study based on parameters documented in Table 3 and have not been previously published.
Fig 4.
Predictions of cold stress, heat stress, and climatic suitability for Neoleucinodes elegantalis (small tomato borer) in CONUS produced by CLIMEX (A‒C) and DDRP (D‒F) based on 1961‒1990 climate normals. Climatic suitability is estimated by the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) in CLIMEX, and by combining cold and heat stress exclusions in DDRP. In DDRP, long-term establishment is indicated by areas not under moderate (excl.-moderate) or severe (excl.-severe) climate stress exclusion. Cold and heat stress units in DDRP were scaled from 0 to 1000 to match the scale in CLIMEX. CLIMEX maps were generated for this study based on parameters documented in Table 3 and have not been previously published.
Fig 5.
CLIMEX (A) and DDRP (B) predictions of heat stress and climatic suitability for Neoleucinodes elegantalis in Brazil. The CLIMEX model is based on 1961‒1990 climate normals whereas DDRP models are presented for all years between 2011 and 2016. Locality records that were used to fit (blue triangles) and validate (black circles) the DDRP climatic suitability model are depicted. Both models predicted suitable conditions in regions where N. elegantalis is widespread, including in the states of Espírito Santo (ES), Goiás (GA), Minas Gerais (MG), Pernambuco (PE), Rio de Janeiro (RJ), Paraná (PR), Rio Grande do Sul (RS), Santa Catarina (SC), and São Paulo (SP). The pink and blue lines in DDRP heat stress maps depict the moderate and severe temperature stress limits, respectively.
Fig 6.
DDRP model predictions of voltinism (number of generations per year) in (A) Epiphyas postvittana (light brown apple moth) and (B) Neoleucinodes elegantalis (small tomato borer) in CONUS for 2018. Maps include estimates of climatic suitability, where long-term establishment is indicated by areas not under moderate (excl.-mod) or severe (excl.-sev) climate stress exclusion.