Fig 1.
Modern range of F. orientalis based on occurrence data from EUFORGEN (red) and General Directorate of Forestry of Turkey (green).
Table 1.
Correlation matrix between 19 bioclimatic variables.
Table 2.
Bioclimatic variables (precomputed in WorldClim dataset) used as environmental input in the models.
Table 3.
AUCtest values of all the algorithms, bioclim, maximum entropy (MaxEnt), generalized additive model (GAM), generalized linear model (GLM), and random forest (RF) performed with present climate conditions (1960–1990).
Fig 2.
Past range projections with random forest algorithm; here only MIROC-ESM is shown (for CCSM4 see S8 Fig).
Occurrence probability of the species is increasing from grey to red (absence to presence) for a) LGM and b) MH. Dots are indicating pollen records (Table 4).
Table 4.
Fig 3.
Distribution maps of present and future projections of F. orientalis are shown from the random forests outputs of a) present, b) optimistic future scenario RCP 2.6, c) moderate future scenario RCP 4.5, and d) pessimistic future scenario RCP 8.5. Red areas show the contraction of species occurrence based on observed data and future projections, brown areas show the contraction of species occurrence based on present and future projections, blue areas represent overlap of species occurrence based on observed data and present projection, green areas show the expansion of species occurrence based on observed data and projections. We quantified the cell numbers for each category in Table 5. Spatial resolution: 2.5ˊ.
Table 5.
Spatial cell numbers of contraction, overlap, and expansion shown in Fig 3 are quantified in this table.