Fig 1.
Decision tree and Markov structure.
Patients are randomly assigned to continuing conventional standard of care or to MDMA-assisted psychotherapy (MAP). At the time of trial completion, a Markov process begins. After each annual cycle patients either remained in the same severity category, progress to a more severe form of PTSD or transition to death (terminal node). Transition probabilities designated by the arrows in the Markov structure, health state utilities, and annual medical care costs are specific to each of the severity categories.
Table 1.
Model input values, ranges for sensitivity analyses, distributions, and data sources.
Table 2.
Net present costs, health benefits and cost-effectiveness results for 30, 10, 3.1 and 1-year analytic time horizons for 1,000 patients.
Fig 2.
Net cost of MAP over 30-year analytic time horizon; for 1,000 patients using 10 most influential input variables across the range of values as shown in Table 1.
Fig 3.
One-way sensitivity analysis of MAP effectiveness on net cost (savings).
10,000 iterations of a Monte Carlo simulation; 1,000 patients over a 30-year analytic horizon. Effectiveness varied by 1 SD of base-case value.
Fig 4.
One-way sensitivity analysis of disease progression on net cost (savings) for 10,000 iterations of a Monte Carlo simulation.
10,000 iterations of a Monte Carlo simulation; 1,000 patients over a 30-year analytic horizon. Disease progression varied from 0.00 to 0.12 annually.