Fig 1.
Empirical distribution of incubation period published by Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan.
Bars shows distribution of incubation period among 91 cases whose exposed date and onset date were published by Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. Because the patients whose incubation was longer than 14 days were just 4%, they were included as bars on 14.
Fig 2.
Observed epidemic curve of COVID-19 patients and predicted epidemic curve from the model based on the estimated reproduction number.
Bar indicates the observed epidemic curve and bold line indicates the predicted line based on the estimated reproduction numbers. Thin lines indicate range of the best fit line at each bootstrapping iteration. Between two vertical lines indicates voluntary event cancellation and school closure period.