Table 1.
Overview of states.
Fig 1.
Time series plots for cumulative infection recovery and death for 6 states.
Legend: Time series plot for all six states on cumulative confirmed infections, recovery and death. The left column has the cumulative infection (blue) and recovery cases (green) for each state from January to July 2020. The right column has the cumulative deaths for each state for the same period. The varying patterns between the states show up clearly.
Fig 2.
Path of mitigation measures (Bentley Stringency Index) over time in each state.
Legend: A comparison of the degree of stringency of mitigation measures by each state shows that though the states all responded by introducing mitigation measures, there are substantial variations between states.
Fig 3.
Legend: This model shows how, beginning from S, the susceptible population moves from being exposed E, to infected I, and then to either recovery R, or death D, the movement being regulated by different parameters.
Fig 4.
Comparison of Oxford Stringency Index (OSI) and Bentley Stringency Index (BSI).
Legend: This graphs shows the simulated R0 by using New York and Texas as examples. The simulation period was from January to August 2020. The BSI gives a slightly more conservative result than the OSI.
Fig 5.
The combination of Stringency and Compliance needed at various levels of R0.
Legend: This simulation tool shows the various combinations of policy measures and degrees of public compliance that will be sufficient to bring R0<1 thus bringing the pandemic under control. R0 is indicated by the bold black line which divides the graph into the “undesirable” portion (above) and the “desirable” portion (below). We have simulated where New York and Texas were for two different periods as they moved closer to the desirable portion.
Fig 6.
a. New York: Plots of mitigation function estimation (daily) vs daily infections (7-day average). Legend: This figure for New York shows the pattern of the relationship between the observed daily infection cases (red dots) with the mitigation function (blue dots). The red line is the 7-day average of confirmed daily infection cases. The blue line is the trend line of the mitigation function obtained by spline smoothing. b. Texas: Plots of mitigation function estimation (daily) vs daily infections (7-day average). Legend: This figure for Texas shows the pattern of the relationship between the observed daily infection cases (red dots) with the mitigation function (blue dots) as measured by the BSI. The red line is the 7-day average of confirmed daily infection cases. The blue line is the trend line of the mitigation function obtained by spline smoothing.