Table 1.
Zoonotic diseases with intermediate hosts.
Fig 1.
A representation of the model.
Model parameters are summarized in Table 3.
Table 2.
ODE systems of our model with three host compartments (species), composed of wild reservoir hosts, intermediate domestic animal hosts, and human hosts.
Table 3.
Parameter definitions.
Table 4.
The endemic equilibria values in each species compartment.
A proof of the uniqueness of the equilibrium value is in S1 Appendix.
Table 5.
Parameter values and sources for the model. Due to a lack of data for transmission parameters in wild animals, we assume βw, γw, bw, and mw to be equivalent to their counterparts in domestic animals.
The timesteps are given in days.
Fig 2.
A simulation of low-pathogenic avian influenza mutating to high-pathogenic avian influenza.
Parameters are as shown in Table 5. While the epidemic dies out in the animal species, its R0 is 2.0871, allowing an epidemic to persist in humans.
Fig 3.
βh (right) and βd (left) are directly proportional to the proportion of humans infected with the mutated strain.
Fig 4.
Graphing the equilibrium proportion of infected humans (Ih) against ph and pd for four different values of μ, with βh = 0.078.
Parameters are as in Table 5, with βw = βd = 0.118*5. While intracompartmental reproductive numbers vary between simulations, R0 for all four simulations is 2.2463.
Fig 5.
Graphing the equilibrium proportion of infected humans (Ih) against ph and pd for four different values of μ, with βh = 0.
Parameters are as in Table 5, with βw = βd = 0.118*5. While intracompartmental reproductive numbers vary between simulations, R0 for all four simulations is 2.2463.