Fig 1.
The main logical components of the structural-demographic theory [9].
Fig 2.
Calculated PSI for 1958–2011 (solid curve) and forecasted PSI for 2012–2020 (broken curve).
Fig 3.
The number of riots per 5-year interval in the USA between 1920 and 2010: A comparison between CNTS data (dark red) and USPV data (blue).
Fig 4.
Temporal trends in anti-government demonstrations (green) and riots (dark red) in the USA, 1946–2018. The points show the number of incidents (demonstrations or riots) per year. The curves are data smoothed with the R function “loess” (span = 0.2).
Fig 5.
Temporal trends in anti-government demonstrations (green) and riots (dark red) in the UK, 1946–2018. The points show the number of incidents (demonstrations or riots) per year. The curves are data smoothed with the R function “loess” (span = 0.2).
Fig 6.
Temporal trends in anti-government demonstrations in five Western countries, 1946–2018.
“Normalized Incidence” is the incidence of anti-government demonstrations per year scaled so that maximum for each country = 1. The vertical broken line indicates the year when the forecast was made (2010).
Fig 7.
Temporal trends in riots in five Western countries, 1946–2018.
“Normalized Incidence” is the incidence of riots per year scaled so that maximum for each country = 1. The vertical broken line indicates the year when the forecast was made (2010).
Table 1.
Historical crises studied by structural-demographic theorists.