Fig 1.
Information on currently forested areas is from the National Institute for Space Research of Brazil (INPE).
Table 1.
List of endemic species and subspecies occurring in the Belém area of endemism.
Fig 2.
Concept map of the methods used in this work.
(A) the study area and the taxa information used to construct the models. (B) The production of species distribution models from the RCPs, selection of climate variables, dispersal frameworks, and the algorithms used to produce the models. (C) the ensemble approach to generate a consensus model for both present and future scenarios. (D) the overlap of species distribution models with local current forest cover (2017) and two future deforestation scenarios (2050). (E) The endemic taxa final model for the Belém area of endemism (BAE).
Table 2.
Estimates of loss and gain of adequate areas in relation to climatic and deforestation impacts, considering the three dispersal frameworks.
The mitigation scenario relates the optimistic climate projections (rcp45) to GOV’s predicted deforestation, whereas the Business-as-usual scenario relates the pessimistic climate (rcp85) to the BAU deforestation predictions. The numbers indicate the percentage of variation in the size of suitable areas in the future compared to currently suitable areas. Negative values (—) indicate loss while positive values (+) indicate gains of suitable areas.
Fig 3.
Maps of the potential distribution of endemic bird species from the Belém Area of Endemism.
1—“Gurupi Mosaic”; 2—“Rio-Capim” watershed. (A) represents the current climate suitability areas, while (B) represents the mitigation scenario, and (C) the Business-as-usual scenario. Regarding different dispersion contexts, sections (I), (II), and (III) demonstrate the Unlimited Dispersal, Limited Dispersal, and No Dispersal scenarios, respectively. Dispersal scenarios were applied to the projections. The mitigation and business-as-usual scenarios applied are projections constructed from perspectives of greenhouse gas emissions, and investments in conservation policies. Colors that vary between yellow and brown represent the number of species per cell in the projections. Both projections of forest remnants have been extracted from the SimAmazonia database [26].