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Fig 1.

Location of Hokkaido and its fourteen subprefectures.

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Fig 2.

Total population of Hokkaido, 1920–2010 (estimates) and 2015–2040 (projections), provided by the Statistics Bureau, MIC of Japan (2012), and National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (2013).

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Table 1.

Geographical and social variables explaining farmland abandonment in each period.

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Table 1 Expand

Fig 3.

Total area of abandoned or developed farmlands in the four periods.

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Fig 4.

Distribution maps depicting the ratio of abandoned farmlands (top) and developed farmlands (bottom) from 1976 to 2009.

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Table 2.

Posterior distribution means and 95% credible intervals for the model intercept and the coefficients of predictors for each period.

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Table 2 Expand