Fig 1.
An overview of Agrimonde-Terra’s foresight method.
Fig 2.
The five Agrimonde-Terra scenarios.
Table 1.
Quantitative model inputs for scenarios’ simulation.
Fig 3.
Consequences of the Agrimonde-Terra and SSP scenarios on world cropland area (Panel A) and world pastureland area (Panel B). Sources: GlobAgri-AgT simulation results and SSP database [49–50] (https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=20). Agrimonde-Terra scenarios include the impacts of differentiated pathways of climate change (Table 1). They are thus compared to SSP/RCP (Radiative Concentration Pathway) combinations of similar mitigation levels (respectively, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0). The RCP8.5 option would fit better for comparison of SSP5 with Metropolization, however results for SSP5-RCP8.5 do not exist in the SSP database; Regarding SSP-RCP results, those reported are REMIND-MAGPIE-SSP5-RCP6.0, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM-SSP2-RCP4.5, IMAGE-SSP1-RCP2.6, GCAM4-SSP4-RCP4.5, AIM/CGE-SSP3-RCP6.0.
Fig 4.
Food diets in 2010 and in 2050 under alternative diet assumptions at the world level and for selected world regions (kcal available/cap/day).
Sources: Calculated from GlobAgri-AgT database. Each bar represents food available per food groups in kcal/cap/day at the world level (the first bar of each group) and for eight world regions: Brazil-Argentine; Canada-USA; European Union (UE 27); Former Soviet Union (FSU); China; India; West Africa; East, Central and South Africa (ECS Africa).