Table 1.
Parameter values used for calculation of effective dose from a nuclear power plant fallout (Eq (1)).
Table 2.
Parameter values used for calculation of organ-absorbed doses (Eq (2)).
Fig 1.
Interpolated continuous age-dependent LAR (10−4 Gy-1) for total cancers (except non-fatal skin cancers) for protracted radiation exposure as a function of age, taken from EPA (2011).
Table 3.
Ratios between organ-specific absorbed dose rate and air kerma rate for a gamma-emitting surface source of 600 keV [26].
Organ-specific ratio between absorbed dose to organ and corresponding whole-body absorbed dose incurred by a uniform distribution of 134Cs and 137Cs, respectively [15]. N/A = Not available.
Fig 2.
Example of age distributions, ADW(age), taken from UN estimates of Egypt, India, Japan, South Korea, and the United States.
Age distribution taken from United Nations (2015).
Table 4.
Quantities defined in Eqs (3)–(5) used for the evaluation of time-integrated (cumulative) lifetime attributable risk estimates.
Table 5.
Overview of fallout scenarios, calculated detriment estimates and time frames considered in this model assessment.
Table 6.
Average individual detriment accumulated over 70 y for a resident living in an area affected by a Chernobyl-like NPP remote fallout for newborns and 30 y olds. Detriments are given in terms of cumulative effective dose, CED(70 y), attributed detriment using the ICRP (2007) risk coefficients for members of the public (0.05 Sv-1), and cumulative lifetime attributable risk of cancer (excluding non-fatal skin cancers) incidence, CUMLARWB(70 y), for three scenarios described in Table 5.
Fig 3.
Cumulated lifetime attributable risk of total cancer (excluding non-fatal skin cancers) for Atot,reg = 1 MBq m-2.
Left: CUMLARWB(70 y) for newborn females and males at the onset of fallout and the sex-average CUMLARWB(70 y) for 30 y olds at t0, and the corresponding detriment calculated from effective dose. Right: CUMLARWB(70 y) as a function of age at the time of fallout for the scenario of Atot,reg = 1 MBq m-2 given in Table 5.
Table 7.
Age-distribution-weighted cumulative lifetime attributable risk of cancer incidence (excluding non-fatal skin cancers) over 70 y, ADWCUMLAR(tacc = 70 y), per unit total regional deposition activity of 137Cs, Atot,reg (MBq m-2), for five types of age distributions taken from the United Nations [38].
Fig 4.
Cumulative lifetime attributable risk of total cancer (excluding non-fatal skin cancers) over 70 y for newborn offspring, born at time tb after the onset of fallout, for a population living in an area with an initial local- and regional-average 137Cs ground deposition, Atot,reg, of 1 MBq m-2.
As a comparison, the detriment from effective dose is also plotted.
Table 8.
Parameter values and probability density functions (pdfs) used in the uncertainty assessment. Central estimates of parameters were those used in the standard scenario. The choice of pdfs and assigned distribution parameters are largely based on qualified assumptions (Type B uncertainties), to a large part presented in Isaksson et al. (2019) [13].
Fig 5.
Left: Histogram plot of CUMLARWB(tacc = 70 y, Atot,loc = Atot,reg = 1 MBq m-2) estimates for adult males (30 y at fallout). Total of 100 kMC runs; results are binned to 5×10−4 width bins. In the box plot inset, a red cross represents mean value, the horizontal red line is median value, blue box comprises 50% of data, and whiskers extend from 5th to 95th percentile. Right: Cumulative lifetime probability, CUMLAR(tacc = 70 y), for total cancer in males for an NPP fallout of Atot,reg = 1 MBq m-2 137Cs. Grey shaded area comprises 90% of data (from 5th to 95th percentile), blue area comprises 50% of data, and red line represents mean value. 10 000 MC runs for each age point.
Table 9.
Lifetime attributable risk, CUMLAR(age(t0)) (LAR*10−2), the first year upon fallout in three different Japanese settlements: comparison between WHO estimates [9] and our model estimates.
Lifetime attributable risk refers to sum over both solid cancers and leukaemia.