Table 1.
Demographic and clinical characteristics by cohort.
Table 2.
Estimateda mean CD4 intercept (cell/μL), estimated mean CD4 count (cell/μL) after 1 and 2 years from ART initiation and the estimated mean CD4 slope (cell/μL/year) during the two years following ART initiation by cohort, CD4 recovery status and baseline age group.
Table 3.
Association between estimated CD4 intercept and CD4 slope during the two years following ART initiation with risk of composite endpointa.
Fig 1.
(a) Cumulative composite outcome endpoint rates by CD4 recovery status. Responders had CD4 slope >100 cells/μL/year. Estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log-rank test (p < 0·01). The median follow-up time estimated by a reverse Kaplan-Meier method was 5.5 years (95% CI: 5.3–5.6). (b) Cumulative composite outcome endpoint rates by CD4/CD8 recovery status. Responders had CD4/CD8 ratio slope >0.15 per year. Estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log-rank test (p < 0·01). The median follow-up time estimated by a reverse Kaplan-Meier method was 5.5 years (95% CI: 5.3–5.6).
Fig 2.
Smoothed cumulative composite outcome endpoint rate curves and their 95% confidence intervals at 10 years from ART initiation by age and immune status (2a: CD4 recovery status; 2b: CD4/CD8 ratio recovery status).
Fig 3.
Time-dependent ROC curves at (3a) 5 and (3b) 10 years from ART initiation and (3c) time-dependent AUCs evaluated over the 10-year study period (baseline at second year of continuous ART). Cox regression models include (i) Estimated CD4 slope (ii) Estimated CD4/CD8 ratio slope (iii) CD4 counts after 1 year and (iv) CD4 counts after 2 years as main predictors, respectively, and adjusted for estimated CD4 intercept or estimated CD4/CD8 ratio or baseline CD4 count, depending on the choice of the prognostic risk factor, and commonly adjusted for age at baseline, gender and study cohort.