Fig 1.
Extents of the central-east (CE) and central-west (CW) regions and locations of temperature monitoring sites.
The CE and CW regions include coastal and inland water bodies through which manatees travel and in which carcasses have been found; the extents include the entirety of inland counties to ensure that all manatee carcasses are assigned a geographic region. The monitoring sites used for modeling cold-related manatee deaths are represented by blue circles (water temperature) and green triangles (air temperature). All cold-related manatee carcass recovery locations from winters 2008–2009 to 2013–2014 are depicted in the map as small blue circles, and the locations of known warm-water sites available to manatees are depicted as red diamonds.
Fig 2.
Visual representation of temperature covariates used in generalized linear models for analysis of cold-related manatee mortality.
This figure displays the date range and overlap of temperature covariates relative to a 7-day carcass window from 19–25 January. The short-term temperature effects are named Sum#_Lag#, and the cumulative temperature effects are named SumCum_Lag# (where # indicates the number of days the data were summed or lagged).
Table 1.
Top 10 models for 7-day counts of cold-related manatee carcasses reported in the central-east region based on water temperature.
Fig 3.
Predicted and observed 7-day counts of cold-related manatee carcasses reported in the central-east (CE) region using water temperature based on the short-term (14-day sum, lagged by 7 days; x-axis) and cumulative temperature effects (lagged by 21 days; y-axis) from the top-ranked model.
The background color represents the predicted number of cold-related carcasses reported over 7 days, and the color of the circles represents the observed number of cold-related carcasses reported over 7 days. The scale for the number of carcasses is continuous (from blue to red), but for the ease of visualization, the legend displays the colors at intervals of 10 carcasses. We did not make predictions for the number of expected carcasses above the highest number reported during a 7-day period (area in white).
Table 2.
Top 10 models for 7-day counts of cold-related manatee carcasses reported in the central-east region based on air temperature.
Fig 4.
The predicted 7-day counts of cold-related manatee carcasses reported in the central-east region using air temperature based on the winter (each panel), short-term (14-day sum, lagged by 10 days; x-axis) and cumulative temperature effects (lagged by 24 days; y-axis) from the top-ranked model.
Each panel represents the observed (circles) and predicted (colored area) number of cold-related carcasses reported over 7 days for each winter. The background color represents the predicted number of cold-related carcasses reported over 7 days, and the color of the circles represent the observed number of cold-related carcasses reported over 7 days. The scale for the number of carcasses is continuous (from blue to red), but for the ease of visualization, the legend displays the colors at intervals of 10 carcasses. We did not make predictions for the number of expected carcasses above the highest number reported during a 7-day period (area in white).
Table 3.
Top 10 models for 7-day counts of cold-related manatee carcasses reported in the central-west region based on water temperature.
Fig 5.
The predicted 7-day counts of cold-related manatee carcasses reported in the central-west region using water temperature based on the short-term temperature effect (14-day sum, lagged by 7 days; x-axis) by winter from the top-ranked model.
Each line represents a different winter, and the circles represent the observed numbers of cold-related carcasses reported over 7 days color-coded by winter. Note that the prediction lines for winters 2009–2010 and 2010–2011 are nearly identical.
Table 4.
Top 10 models for 7-day counts of cold-related manatee carcasses reported in the central-west region based on air temperature.
Fig 6.
The predicted 7-day counts of cold-related manatee carcasses reported in the central-west region using air temperature based on the short-term temperature effect (14-day sum, lagged by 10 days; x-axis) by winter from the top-ranked model.
Each line represents a different winter, and the circles represent the observed numbers of cold-related carcasses reported over 7 days, color-coded by winter.
Fig 7.
Number of cold-related manatee carcasses reported by day and condition code in the central-east (CE) region during winter 2009–2010.
Mean daily water temperature from the water monitoring site in Indian River at Vero Beach (see Fig 1) is plotted in black. Note that the scales on the y-axis for carcass counts differ between Figs 7 and 8.
Fig 8.
Number of cold-related manatee carcasses reported by day and condition code in the central-west (CW) region during winter 2009–2010.
Mean daily water temperature from the TECO Big Bend Power Station intake (see Fig 1) is plotted in black. Note that the scales on the y-axis for carcass counts differ between Figs 7 and 8.