Fig 1.
Location of the Mekong River Delta region in the map of Vietnam (yellow area in small map) and distribution of the region’s rice land in 2014.
Fig 2.
The methodological framework.
Table 1.
Percentage of rice land potentially affected by salinity intrusion in El Niño years and flooding in La Niña years.
Fig 3.
Relationship between observed Leaf Area Indexes (LAI) from experimental plots in Soc Trang province for winter-spring, summer-autumn, and autumn-winter season during 2012–2013, and simulated indexes generated by the ORYZA model.
Table 2.
Comparison between observed (YO, ton/ha) and simulated (YS, ton/ha) rice yields of experimental plots implemented in Soc Trang province for winter-spring, summer-autumn, and autumn-winter season during 2012–2013.
Fig 4.
Simulated and observed rice yield of WS season in (a) Soc Trang and (b) Tra Vinh provinces, and of AW season in (c) An Giang and (d) Long An provinces for the period 1976–2016.
Table 3.
The coefficient of determination (Ef) calculated for validation of seasonal yield estimation for the period 1976–2016 of 13 MRD provinces.
Fig 5.
Yield reduction (%) due to salinity intrusion in winter-spring season of El Niño years for the period 1976–2016.
Fig 6.
Yield reduction (%) due to flooding in autumn-winter season of La Niña years for the period 1976–2016.
Table 4.
Levels of rice yield reduction ratio of MRD’s provinces due to negative impacts of El Niño in WS season and La Niña in AW season.
Table 5.
Differences between average future (2020–2050) and present (2005–2016) rice yields in the winter-spring (WS), summer-autumn (SA) and autumn-winter (AW) cropping seasons.
Fig 7.
Simulated future rice yield of WS in Soc Trang province and AW in An Giang province from 2020 to 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios.
Table 6.
Estimation of future rice production of MRD’s provinces under impacts of climate change scenarios and ENSO events.