Fig 1.
Percentage of observations with ΔMELD30 ≥ 10, ΔMELD30 ≥ 5, and ΔMELD30 of 30% or more at each MELD score.
Fig 2.
Mean serum sodium for patients with and without occurrence of a ΔMELD30 jump.
Table 1.
Baseline registrant and donor organ characteristics for registrants stratified by ΔMELD30 ≥ 10 status.
Table 2.
Univariable and multivariable CSH models for waitlist dropout using MELD and ΔMELD30.
Table 3.
Hazard ratios for waitlist dropout and transplantation for ΔMELD30 ≥ 10 vs < 10, stratified by current MELD.
Models were not adjusted for additional covariates.
Table 4.
Modified MELD score which accounts for increased risk in waitlist dropout for patients experiencing ΔMELD30 ≥ 10.
Fig 3.
Cumulative incidence curves for waitlist dropout (DO) and transplantation (Tx).
Cumulative incidence curves for waitlist dropout (black lines) and transplantation (blue lines) for patients with (dashed line) and without (solid line) a ΔMELD30 ≥ 10 jump at various MELD scores. Based on UNOS/OPTN data for registrants added to the liver transplant waitlist between 06/30/2003 and 6/30/2013.
Fig 4.
Observed versus predicted one, three, and six month waitlist dropout.
Observed versus predicted one, three, and six month waitlist dropout from the first time a given MELD score is obtained for patients experiencing a ΔMELD30 ≥ 10 jump. Red points and smoothed red lines are observed probabilities for patients experiencing a ΔMELD30 ≥ 10 jump, while black points and smoothed black lines are observed probabilities for patients not experiencing a ΔMELD30 ≥ 10 jump. Red shaded regions are pointwise 95% confidence intervals for patients with ΔMELD30 ≥ 10, where the upper and lower limits have been smoothed for better presentation. The green line indicates the predicted dropout for actual MELD plus two points (based on Model #4 in Table 2), while the blue line indicates the predicted dropout for the MELD / ΔMELD30 ≥ 10 interaction model (Model #5 in Table 2, with increase in MELD score given in Table 4). Based on UNOS/OPTN data for registrants added to the liver transplant waitlist between 06/30/2003 and 6/30/2013.
Fig 5.
Cumulative incidence curves for waitlist dropout (DO) and transplantation (Tx) in data post MELD-Na and Share 35.
Cumulative incidence curves for waitlist dropout (black lines) and transplantation (blue lines) for patients with (dashed line) and without (solid line) a ΔMELD30 ≥ 10 jump at various MELD scores. Based on UNOS/OPTN data for registrants on the liver transplant waitlist between 01/02/2016 to 09/07/2018.
Fig 6.
Observed versus predicted one, three, and six month waitlist dropout in data post MELD-Na and Share 35.
Observed versus predicted one, three, and six month waitlist dropout from the first time a given MELD score is obtained for patients experiencing a ΔMELD30 ≥ 10 jump. Red points and smoothed red lines are observed probabilities for patients experiencing a ΔMELD30 ≥ 10 jump, while black points and smoothed black lines are observed probabilities for patients not experiencing a ΔMELD30 ≥ 10 jump. Red shaded regions are pointwise 95% confidence intervals for patients with ΔMELD30 ≥ 10, where the upper and lower limits have been smoothed for better presentation. The green line indicates the predicted dropout for actual MELD plus two points (based on Model #4 in Table 2), while the blue line indicates the predicted dropout for the MELD / ΔMELD30 ≥ 10 interaction model (Model #5 in Table 2, with increase in MELD score given in Table 4). Based on UNOS/OPTN data for registrants on the liver transplant waitlist between 01/02/2016 to 09/07/2018.