Fig 1.
The aims of the study are to assess impact to ecosystem services across the ecosystem service cascade of supply, service, and value dimensions of ecosystem services.
To do so, we employ the methods of cumulative impact mapping, which combines spatial data on multiple drivers of impact, multiple ecosystem services, and expert-derived estimates of the risk posed by drivers to ecosystem services, according to various risk criteria. As a result, we generate maps of cumulative impact on ecosystem services.
Table 1.
The ecosystem services modeled in our study and all associated human activities and stressors that pose risk to these ecosystem services.
Fig 2.
Cumulative impact maps for four ecosystem services (aesthetics, coastal protection, benefits from commercial demersal fisheries and benefits from commercial pelagic fisheries), with associated bar graphs of drivers of impact.
Maps display the summed impact of all drivers to each ecosystem service; bar graphs show total impact values for each driver. Red bars indicate impact only accounting for ecosystem service supply dimensions (ES supply), and black bars indicate impact accounting for the entire ecosystem service cascade, including supply, service, and value (ES). Coastal protection is not to scale to allow for visibility. Four drivers that cause impact have been left off the bar graphs because they contribute negligible levels of impact across ecosystem services (small docks, log dumping, ocean dumping, and industry).
Fig 3.
Cumulative impact maps for four ecosystem services (recreation, energy, benefits from finfish aquaculture, and benefits from shellfish aquaculture), with associated bar graphs of drivers of impact.
Maps display the summed impact of all drivers to each ecosystem service; bar graphs show total impact values for each driver. Red bars indicate impact only accounting for ecosystem service supply dimensions (ES supply), and black bars indicate impact accounting for the entire ecosystem service cascade, including supply, service, and value (ES). Aquaculture sites are not to scale to allow for visibility. Four drivers that cause impact have been left off the bar graphs because they contribute negligible levels of impact across ecosystem services (small docks, log dumping, ocean dumping, and industry).
Fig 4.
Density histograms of per-cell Ic values for each ecosystem service.
Red histograms indicate per-cell impact only accounting for ecosystem service supply (ES supply), and black histograms indicate impact accounting for all dimensions, including supply, service, and value (ES).
Table 2.
Per-cell and total cumulative impact scores for all ecosystem services.
Cumulative impact scores are provided for the models considering impact across ecosystem service cascade (supply, service, and value), as well as for the models considering impact only to ecosystem service supply.
Table 3.
The relative (proportional) increase in per-cell and total cumulative impact scores when modeling impacts to ecosystem service supply, service, and value for each ecosystem service compared to only modeling impacts to ecosystem service supply.
Fig 5.
The risk posed by future climate change risks and oil spills on six ecosystem services, compared with current climate change risks.
Points represent mean risk scores, error bars represent 25th and 75th percentiles, and lines connecting points demonstrate the trajectory of risk from current conditions to future conditions.
Fig 6.
The perceived importance of risk criteria to exposure and consequence.
Points and error bars represent mean and standard deviations of the distribution of relative importance of risk criteria.
Fig 7.
The proportion of each type of impact mechanism (direct, both direct and indirect, indirect, no impact, and unsure) from four categories of drivers to the eight ecosystem services, as indicated by experts.