Table 1.
Model parameters and data sources.
Fig 1.
Comparison of epidemic size resulting from a single imported case and a deliberate release scenario with 100 and 1000 initial infected cases.
Fig 2.
Incidence of infection and death: Sensitivity analysis on proportion of infected cases isolated and time from virus release to starting interventions.
Results shown for 100 initial infected and 90% contacts traced/vaccinated.
Fig 3.
Incidence of infection and death: Sensitivity analysis on proportion of contacts traced and time from virus release to starting interventions.
Results shown for 100 initial infected and 95% infectious cases isolated.
Fig 4.
Incidence of infection and death: Sensitivity analysis on proportion of cases isolated and contacts traced.
Results shown for 100 initial infected and T = 20 starting intervention.
Table 2.
Total number of infected cases and contacts needed to be traced and quarantined by the end of the epidemic with varying case isolation rates and 90% contacts traced.
Fig 5.
Total number of beds needed each day of the outbreak by time of starting intervention and percentage of case isolation with 10000 initially infected.
Table 3.
Time (days) to when 20% or more of available hospitals beds are used for smallpox cases, by intervention starting time (T) and number of initial infected.
Results showed for 95% of new infected isolated.