Fig 1.
Location and geographic limits of the Caatinga.
(A) Geographical location of the Caatinga in South America and (B) Phytogeographic domains in northeastern Brazil. Source of the shapes of the Brazilian phytogeographic domains: MMA-Ministério do Meio Ambiente, Brazil (public domain) (available for download at http://mapas.mma.gov.br/i3geo/datadownload.htm and http://mapas.mma.gov.br/mapas/aplic/probio/datadownload.htm?/caatinga/dados/shape_file/).
Table 1.
Classes of reproductive life history traits with their respective categories used in this study.
Table 2.
Adjustments between the sampled points of the endemic plant species in the Caatinga and climatic models for the current period (1970–2000) and two future scenarios (2070–2099), an optimist (RCP4.5) and a more pessimist (RCP8.5).
Fig 2.
Distribution of suitable habitats of plant species endemic to the Caatinga.
(A) During both the current period and two future scenarios, between 2070 and 2099, including a more optimistic (RCP4.5) (B) and a more pessimistic (RCP8.5) (C) projection. Solid dots in A indicate locations of the sampled species. Source of the shapes of the Brazilian and Caatinga boundaries, and protected areas: MMA-Ministério do Meio Ambiente, Brazil (public domain) (available for download, respectively, at http://mapas.mma.gov.br/i3geo/datadownload.htm; http://mapas.mma.gov.br/mapas/aplic/probio/datadownload.htm?/caatinga/dados/shape_file/); http://www.mma.gov.br/areas-protegidas/cadastro-nacional-de-ucs/dados-georreferenciados.html.
Table 3.
Reductions in suitable habitats (i.e. areas with probability of occurrence > 80%) of endemic plant species in the Caatinga in two scenarios of climate change: An optimistic (RCP4.5) and a more pessimistic (RCP8.5).
Fig 3.
Reduction of suitable Caatinga habitat (probability of occurrence > 80%) for endemic flowering plant species in the current period and in two future scenarios, an optimistic (RCP4.5) and a pessimistic (RCP8.5).
(A) Habit (N = 76). (B) Pollination systems (N = 64). (C) Reproductive systems (N = 25). (D) Dispersal modes (N = 62). Different letters below the boxplots indicate statistical significance of post-hoc comparisons at P < 0.05.
Fig 4.
Distribution of suitable habitat for arboreous species (A, B and C) and non-arboreous species (D, E and F) endemic to the Caatinga during both the present and two future scenarios, between 2070 and 2099, including an optimistic (RCP4.5) and a pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenario. Solid dots in A and D indicate locations of the sampled species. Source of the shapes of the Brazilian and Caatinga boundaries: MMA-Ministério do Meio Ambiente, Brazil (public domain) (available for download at http://mapas.mma.gov.br/i3geo/datadownload.htm and http://mapas.mma.gov.br/mapas/aplic/probio/datadownload.htm?/caatinga/dados/shape_file/).
Fig 5.
Distribution of suitable habitat for plant species endemic to the Caatinga with either generalist (A, B and C) or specialized (D, E and F) pollination systems in both the present and two futures scenarios, between 2070 and 2099, including an optimistic (RCP4.5) and a pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenario. Solid dots in A and D indicate locations of the sampled species. Source of the shapes of the Brazilian and Caatinga boundaries: MMA-Ministério do Meio Ambiente, Brazil (public domain) (available for download at http://mapas.mma.gov.br/i3geo/datadownload.htm and http://mapas.mma.gov.br/mapas/aplic/probio/datadownload.htm?/caatinga/dados/shape_file/).
Fig 6.
Distribution of suitable habitat for plants species endemic to the Caatinga with either self-compatible (A, B and C) or self-incompatible/dioecious (i.e. obligatory cross-pollination) (D, E and F) reproductive systems in the present and two future scenarios, between 2070 and 2099, including an optimistic (RCP4.5) and a pessimistic (RCP8.5). Solid dots in A and D indicate locations of the sampled species. Source of the shapes of the Brazilian and Caatinga boundaries: MMA-Ministério do Meio Ambiente, Brazil (public domain) (available for download at http://mapas.mma.gov.br/i3geo/datadownload.htm and http://mapas.mma.gov.br/mapas/aplic/probio/datadownload.htm?/caatinga/dados/shape_file/).
Fig 7.
Distribution of suitable habitat for plant species endemic to the Caatinga with either abiotic (A, B and C) or biotic (D, E and F) seed dispersal modes in both the present and two futures scenarios between 2070 and 2099, including an optimistic (RCP4.5) and a pessimistic (RCP8.5). Solid dots in A and D indicate locations of the sampled species. Source of the shapes of the Brazilian and Caatinga boundaries: MMA-Ministério do Meio Ambiente, Brazil (public domain) (available for download at http://mapas.mma.gov.br/i3geo/datadownload.htm and http://mapas.mma.gov.br/mapas/aplic/probio/datadownload.htm?/caatinga/dados/shape_file/).