Fig 1.
Monthly incidence rate of road traffic injuries in Iran: (a) total, (b) male, and (c) female, 2009–2016.
Table 1.
Exponential smoothing methods.
Fig 2.
Original (blue line) and transformed (red line) temporal distribution of monthly incidence rate of total road traffic injuries in Iran, 2005–2016.
Table 2.
Results of statistical tests for the linearity and stationarity.
Fig 3.
ACF, partial ACF after differences, and ACF of residuals of monthly incidence rate of (a,e,i)total road traffic injuries (from 2005 to 2016), and monthly incidence rate of (b,f,j)males, (c,g,k)females and (d,h,l)male/female road traffic injuries(from 2009 to 2016) in Iran.
Table 3.
AIC and BIC values for the different SARIMA models.
Table 4.
Results of parameter estimation for the SARIMA models.
Table 5.
Results of statistical tests for residuals of final models.
Table 6.
Parameters estimated for the state-space and Holt-Winters models.
Fig 4.
Predicted(SARIMA: blue line, Holt-Winters: red line), actual (black line), and 95CI (green line) monthly incidence rate of (a) total, (b) male, (c) female, and (d) male/female road traffic injuries in Iran, 2009–2016.