Fig 1.
Areas that were analyzed in the four earthquakes (red).
Seismic intensity values observed in each municipality is shown by the darkness of red colors. Note that for the Tohoku Earthquake, the coastal areas in Aomori, Iwate and Miyagi prefectures (blue) and areas in Fukushima prefecture that were affected by the nuclear power plant accident was removed from the analysis.
Table 1.
Statistics of the four earthquakes and mobile phone data used for analysis.
Fig 2.
Spatial distribution of the seismic intensity and evacuation rates during the Kumamoto earthquake.
A: seismic intensity data shown for each local government unit (LGU). B: evacuation rate for each LGU. The seismic intensity and evacuation rates are positively correlated, however, the evacuation rates suddenly increase at around 5.
Fig 3.
Fragility curves for evacuation rates.
A: evacuation rates for each of the four earthquakes plotted against seismic intensities for all affected LGUs, along with the estimated fragility curve. Colors indicate earthquake incident. B: scatter plot of estimated and true evacuation rates.
Table 2.
Robustness test of fragility curve fitting results.
The evacuation rates for the “left out earthquake” was predicted by the model fitted by the other three earthquakes.
Fig 4.
Distribution of evacuation distance.
A: distribution of evacuation distances including all observed users. B: distribution of evacuation distances for only those who evacuated. We can observe that the probability densities for different seismic intensities collapse into one distribution, implying that evacuation distances are not dependent on seismic intensity.