Fig 1.
Summary of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus occurrence records available for model calibration and evaluation.
Fig 2.
Current potential distribution of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus based on present-day climatic conditions.
Navy blue shaded areas were modeled as suitable; gray areas were modeled as unsuitable.
Table 1.
Partial area under the curve (AUC) ratios summarizing evaluations of ecological niche models of arboviral vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus based on 1000 bootstrap iterations.
no. NS indicates the number out of 1000 random replicate analyses for which AUC ratio was greater than 1.
Fig 3.
Predicted future potential distribution of Aedes aegypti under four future representative concentration pathways of climate conditions in 2050.
Brown areas are modeled suitable conditions; gray areas are unsuitable conditions.
Fig 4.
Predicted future potential distribution of Aedes albopictus under four future representative concentration pathways of climate conditions in 2050.
Brown areas are modeled suitable conditions; gray areas are unsuitable conditions.
Fig 5.
Summary of the modeled global distribution of Aedes aegypti under both current and future climatic conditions in 2050 showing stability of predictions at present and into the future, and to illustrate differences among representative concentration pathways (RCPs).
Navy blue represents model stability under both current and future conditions, dark orange represents agreement among all climate models in anticipating the potential distributional areas in the future, and light orange indicates low agreement between diverse models as regards distributional potential in the future.
Fig 6.
Summary of the modeled global distribution of Aedes albopictus under both current and future climatic conditions in 2050 showing stability of predictions at present and into the future, and to illustrate differences among representative concentration pathways (RCPs).
Navy blue represents model stability under both current and future conditions, dark orange represents agreement among all climate models in anticipating the potential distributional areas in the future, and light orange indicates low agreement between diverse models as regards distributional potential in the future.
Fig 7.
Background similarity test showing overall niche overlap between ecological niche models for Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus.
The vertical blue line shows observed niche overlap, and the histograms show the distribution of the background similarity values among 100 random replicates, for the I and D similarity metrics. On the maps, dark gray and light red shading indicates the modeled suitable areas for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively; dark purple shading shows areas of overlap between the two species.
Fig 8.
Visualization of ecological niches of Aedes aegypti, and Ae. albopictus in three environmental dimensions (PC1, PC2, and PC3).
Niches are represented as minimum volume ellipsoids to illustrate the limits under which the species has been sampled. Gray shading represents environmental background, green ellipsoid represents Aedes aegypti, and pink is Aedes albopictus.