Fig 1.
Representative policy time trends, 2015–2050.
Base scenario held 2014 mortality, fertility, and migrant population percentage constant. Fertility scenario increased TFR to 1.7 from 2020. Migration scenario introduced 216,000 additional annual immigrants from 2020. Combination scenario applied variables of both fertility and migration scenarios from 2020.
Fig 2.
Fertility model 2050.
Fig 3.
Migration model 2050.
Fig 4.
Required migrant populations by 2050 OADR.
Assuming a 2020 policy start date. Prior to start date mortality and fertility were held constant at 2014 rates. Combination scenario increases TFR to 1.7 after policy start date alongside additional migrant number.
Fig 5.
OECD migrant population comparisons if Japan maintains 2015 OADR in 2050.
Comparison of OECD countries’ foreign born populations for 2015 Japan’s real 2015 value and hypothetical 2050 value are both displayed. 2050 predicted value reflects the necessary percentage of migrants to achieve the same OADR as 2015 in 2050. Data source: OECD library, 2016.