Fig 1.
Sensitivity, specificity, and TSS plotted against threshold values.
The optimal threshold was defined at the point at which the sensitivity and specificity curves crossed (threshold: 0.37). TSS = 0.578 for the validation sample.
Table 1.
Summary of the GLM fitted to presence/absence data for white mustard in the Mediterranean Basin.
The independent variables are as follows: Bio1, Annual mean temperature; Bio3, Isothermality; Bio5, Maximum temperature of the warmest month; Bio12, Annual precipitation; and Slope.
Fig 2.
Current suitability map of white mustard in the Mediterranean Basin based on the GLM results.
Only pixels with suitability values equal to or greater than the 0.37 threshold are shown.
Fig 3.
Ensembled projections of the fitted GLM for white mustard suitability using five GCMs.
a) 2050 and RCP4.5 emission scenario, b) 2050 and RCP8.5 emission scenario, c) 2080 and RCP4.5 emission scenario, and d) 2080 and RCP8.5 emission scenario. The color scale represents the number of GCMs that predicted the presence of the species for each combination of year and greenhouse gas emissions scenario.
Table 2.
Extent of topo-climatically suitable land for white mustard growth for different GCMs and greenhouse gas emission scenarios in 2050 and 2080.
Fig 4.
Rapeseed crop suitability model (according to GAEZ) under current conditions.
The colored areas show the areas in which rapeseed is currently grown.
Fig 5.
Ensemble forecast maps of rapeseed suitability based on three GCMs for combinations of year and greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
a) 2050 and B2 emission scenario, b) 2050 and A2 emission scenario, c) 2080 and B2 emission scenario, and d) 2080 and A2 emission scenario. Suitability is represented on a scale from -3 to 3, where negative values indicate the number of GCMs predicting that a currently suitable pixel will become unsuitable for the species, 0 indicates that the species is not present currently or in the future according to all GCMs, and positive values indicate the number of GCMs predicting that a currently suitable pixel will remain suitable for the cultivation of the species.
Table 3.
Extent of suitable land to grow rapeseed under different climate change scenarios.