Fig 1.
Map of the state of Paraná broken down by mesoregion.
Fig 2.
Temporal Series and Histogram.
Distribution of the number of confirmed and autochthonous cases of influenza A (H1N1) in Paraná State from epidemiological weeks 14 to 38 (04/05/2009 to 09/26/2009). The red vertical line represents the number of zeros in the data.
Fig 3.
Climatic and sociodemographic variables used in the theoretical model for the chance of occurrence and risk of influenza A (H1N1).
Fig 4.
Spatial distribution maps for rate of influenza A (H1N1) and covariates.
Map of the spatial distribution of influenza A (H1N1) cases per 1,000 inhabitants with climatic and sociodemographic covariates.
Table 1.
Relative risk and chance ratios.
Effects of sociodemographic covariates expressed in terms of chance of occurrence of influenza A (H1N1) and the relative risk of disease in Paraná, from April 5 to September 26, 2009, with 95% credible interval.
Fig 5.
Effect of maximum temperature.
Effect of the maximum temperature on the risk of influenza A (H1N1) in Paraná State from April 5 to September 26 in 2009 (corresponding to epidemiological weeks 14 to 38).
Fig 6.
Influenza A (H1N1) chance probability map.
Map of the posterior probabilities of influenza A (H1N1) chance exceeds 1 over selected epidemiological weeks in the state of Paraná.
Fig 7.
Influenza A (H1N1) risk probability map.
Map of the posterior probabilities of influenza A (H1N1) risk exceeds 1 during selected epidemiological weeks in the state of Paraná.
Fig 8.
Correlation between the arrival times of the epidemic and the effective distance for candidate municipalities for the starting point of influenza A (H1N1) in Paraná in 2009.