Fig 1.
Single-strain dengue transmission model.
Fig 2.
Two-strain dengue transmission model.
Table 1.
Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios.
Fig 3.
Temperature based on RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios on Jeju Island: (a) the five-year average daily temperature from 2020 to 2099, and (b) the five-year average daily precipitation from 2020 to 2099.
Table 2.
Reports on yearly cases of dengue fever from 2001–2016 (unit: cases per year).
Table 3.
Reports on monthly cases of dengue fever from 2012–2016 (unit: cases per month).
Table 4.
Descriptions and values of parameters.
Fig 4.
Temperature-dependent entomological parameters are displayed for various temperatures within the range 0°C to 40°C.
In (a)—(e), red dashed and blue solid curves represent the extended parameters for a wider temperature range, and the black dots are values of fitting functions over the given temperature range. In (f), the red dashed curve represents the equation fitted using the black dotted experimental data.
Fig 5.
Single-strain model: (a) infectious mosquitoes and (b) incidence of humans are displayed over 50 years based on RCP 2.6 (black solid line), RCP 4.5 (green dashed line), RCP 6.0 (blue dotted line), and RCP 8.5 (red dash-dotted line).
The initial conditions are set to Ih(0) = 0, Iv(0) = 0, Nh(0) = 676000, and Nv(0) = 2 × 676000.
Fig 6.
Single-strain model: (a) annual cumulative number of infectious mosquitoes and (b) annual cumulative incidence of humans are displayed over 50 years based on RCP 2.6 (black solid line), RCP 4.5 (green dashed line), RCP 6.0 (blue dotted line), and RCP 8.5 (red dash-dotted line).
The initial conditions are set to Ih(0) = 0, Iv(0) = 0, Nh(0) = 676000, and Nv(0) = 2 × 676000.
Fig 7.
Two-strain model: (a) primary cumulative incidence of humans, (b) secondary cumulative incidence of humans, (c) cumulative number of infectious mosquitoes, and (d) cumulative fatality cases are displayed over 50 years based on RCP 2.6 (black), RCP 4.5 (green), RCP 6.0 (blue), and RCP 8.5 (red).
The initial conditions are set to Iv1(0) = Iv2(0) = 0, Ih1(0) = 0, Ih2(0) = 0, Nh(0) = 676000, and Nv(0) = 2 × 676000.
Fig 8.
Two-strain model: (a) The five-year average of the numbers of days that have a higher VC than γ is displayed for each year. (b) The intensity is computed based on the average VC over the highest sequential three months for each five-year period.
Fig 9.
Two-strain model: Relationship between the cumulative number of infectious mosquitoes and temperature based on the RCP 4.5 (green) and RCP 8.5 (red) scenarios.
Table 5.
Correlation between cumulative number of infectious mosquitoes and RCP scenarios.
Fig 10.
Single-strain model: (a) the annual cumulative incidence for humans and (b) the monthly averaged Rs are compared corresponding to θ = 0 (top), θ = 0.005 (second row), θ = 0.01 (third row), and θ = 0.02 (bottom).
The climate data is based on the RCP 8.5 scenario.
Fig 11.
Two-strain model: (a) the annual cumulative incidence for humans and (b) cumulative number of infectious mosquitoes are compared corresponding to θ = 0 (top), θ = 0.005 (second row), θ = 0.01 (third row), and θ = 0.02 (bottom) over 50 years depending on u = 0 (black), 0.5 (blue), 0.9 (red) to control the inflow rate of travelers.
The climate data is based on the RCP 8.5 scenario.
Table 6.
Two-strain model: The total number of cumulative incidences depending on control scenarios of dengue mosquitoes and infected travelers.
Fig 12.
Elasticity of the cumulative incidence of humans: The two-strain model under the initial conditions Iv1(0) = Iv2(0) = 0, Ih1(0) = 0, Ih2(0) = 0, Nh(0) = 676000, and Nv(0) = 2×676000.
Fig 13.
Daily temperature-dependent parameters are displayed over time based on the RCP 8.5 scenario starting on June 1, 2020.
(a) Pre-adult maturation rate (ω), (b) transmissible rate (βhv, βhv), (c) virus incubation rate (ε), and (d) mortality rate (μv).
Fig 14.
Random sampling: (a) Daily temperature based on RCP 8.5 (red solid) and the range of sampling for each temperature (blue line). (b) Partial rank correlation coefficients on Rs at day 150.