Fig 1.
A schematic diagram of the integrated ecosystem modelling and strategic management evaluation framework.
The diagram illustrates the current linking within the integrated modelling framework for investigating ecosystem-wide effects of human-induced pressures in the Baltic Sea.
Fig 2.
Baltic Atlantis spatial polygon structure.
Fig 3.
Baltic Atlantis model–biological structure.
Detail list of species included in each group is found in Table G in S1 File. The figure illustrates the main interactions focused upon in the current context, i.e. a comprehensive diagram of the full biological interactions between functional groups in the Baltic Atlantis model will be way too complex to overview in one diagram.
Table 1.
Summary of biological structure of the Baltic ATLANTIS model.
Table 2.
Relative (%) reduction of total nitrogen river load applied to certain Baltic Atlantis polygon according to the four nutrient load scenarios (#2–#5) and the changes in fishing mortality for the five fishing mortality scenarios (#6–#10).
Scenario 1 is the baseline to compare the results against.
Fig 4.
Spatial distribution of annual average surface Chl-a [mg m-3].
As simulated by HBM-ERGOM for the annual average over the period 2005–2014 (A-B) and Baltic Atlantis for the annual average for the last five projection years (C). Areas marked in yellow represent concentrations of 5 mg m-3 or higher.
Fig 5.
Time series evolution of Baltic Atlantis functional groups.
Total biomass in metric tons of biological functional groups and total DIN (dissolved inorganic nitrogen) obtained from a 60-year reference run initialized with 2005 data.
Fig 6.
Emergent diet composition of sprat, cod, and seals from the whole of the Baltic Sea.
Results are average from last 5 years of model 60-year calibration run for both juvenile and adult groups, with the prey being arranged on the x-axis according to the trophic level (A, C, E) and the dynamics of the diet composition simulated over the 60 years–combined for adults and juveniles (B, D, F).
Fig 7.
Biomass, condition and demography of Baltic cod and sprat, taken as an annual average from last 5 years of calibration run for the whole Baltic Sea.
The individual and population metrics per age class include: (A, C) biomass for 3 age groups over the 60 year simulation period (B, D) number of individuals.
Fig 8.
Spatial distribution of Baltic sprat biomass for the 60 year simulation period.
Fig 9.
Spatial distribution of bottom oxygen concentration for the Baltic Sea for the 60 year simulation period.
Fig 10.
Results of the four river load scenarios.
Percentage of change of the biomass for the different biological functional groups compared to the status-quo scenario #1.
Table 3.
Relative changes (%) of equilibrium fish and Nephrops total stock biomasses (TSB), averaged over the final simulation year, given the three nutrient load reduction scenarios (#2–#4) evaluated economically relative to the status-quo scenario (#1), of the species groups included in the Baltic Atlantis model.
Fig 11.
Oxygen concentration of bottom layer: Baseline (scenario #1) vs. scenario #5.
Fig 12.
Results of the five fishing mortality sensitivity analyses (scenario #6–#10 respectively).
Percentage of change of the biomass for the different biological functional groups compared to the status-quo scenario #1.
Table 4.
NPV (mill EUR) from 2012 to 2037 for the four fleet segments for the baseline (scenario #1) and the three nutrient scenarios evaluated by FISHRENT (#2–#4).
Results based on original 2012 local ICES-based assessed fishing mortality (F) and total stock biomass (TSB) for the groups and areas listed in Table 3, compared to using Atlantis-based F and TSB.