Fig 1.
Corn study sites located in major dairy regions of the Northeast United States.
Table 1.
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models used in the present study.
Table 2.
Characteristics of common corn cultivars planted in the Northeast United States.
Fig 2.
Trends for projected changes in planting date in the 21st century as determined by (a) Last spring freeze. (b) 14 days before the last spring freeze. (c) One day after the last spring freeze, at three locations in the Northeast United States under emission scenarios of RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Solid and dashed lines are median trends of data predicted by nine Global Climate Models and shaded areas represent standard error of the mean.
Table 3.
Projected median recession rate of last spring freeze (days per decade) at three locations in the Northeast United States under two emission scenarios during the 21st century.
Fig 3.
Trends of projected days to reach physiological maturity in the 21st century for full and short season corn based on (a) business-as-usual planting dates. (b) Planted 14-days before the last spring freeze. (c) Planted 1-day after the last spring freeze, at three locations in the Northeast United States under emission scenarios of RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Solid and dashed lines are median trends of data predicted by nine Global Climate Models and shaded areas represent standard error of the mean.
Table 4.
Projected rates of reduction in time to corn maturity (days per decade) in the 21st century for two corn cultivars planted according to business-as-usual date, scenario-1 (14 days before the last spring freeze) and scenario-2 (1 day after the last spring freeze) at three locations in the Northeast United States under two emission scenarios.
Rates are reported as median values across projected data from 9 Global Climate Models.
Fig 4.
Trends of projected high temperature frequencies (daily Tmax ≥ 35°C) in the 21st century during corn growth stages of emergence (VE), six-leaf (V6), ten-leaf (V10), silking (R1), and physiological maturity (R6), for full and short season corn cultivars planted at (a) Business-as-usual dates. (b) 14-days before the last spring freeze. (c) 1-day after the last spring freeze, at three locations in the Northeast United States under emission scenarios of RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Solid and dashed lines are median trends of data predicted by nine Global Climate Models and shaded areas represent standard error of the mean.
Fig 5.
Trends of projected high temperature frequencies (daily Tmax ≥ 35°C) in the 21st century during silking (R1) through physiological maturity (R6) at160 GDD intervals for full and short season corn cultivars planted at (a) Business-as-usual dates. (b)14-days before the last spring freeze. (c)1-day after the last spring freeze, at three locations in the Northeast United States under emission scenarios of RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Solid and dashed lines are median trends of data predicted by Global Climate Models and shaded areas represent standard error of the mean.
Table 5.
Projected rates of extreme temperature frequencies (daily Tmax ≥ 35°C) (day decade-1) during the 21st century in two important growth stages of corn cultivars planted according to the business-as-usual date, scenario-1 (14 days before the last spring freeze), and scenario-2 (1 day after the last spring freeze) at three locations in the Northeast United States, under two emission scenarios.
Rates are reported as median values across projected data from 9 Global Climate Models.
Fig 6.
Trends of projected water deficit (PET-precipitation) in the 21st century during corn growth stages of emergence (VE), six-leaf (V6), ten-leaf (V10), silking (R1), and physiological maturity (R6), for full and short season cultivars planted at (a) Business-as-usual dates. b)14-days before the last spring freeze, and (c)1-day after the last spring freeze, at three locations in the Northeast United States under emission scenarios of RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Solid and dashed lines are median trends of data predicted by nine Global Climate Models and shaded areas represent standard error of the mean.
Table 6.
Rate of projected water deficit (mm decade-1) in the 21st century during vegetative and reproductive stages of corn cultivars planted according to business-as-usual date, at three locations in the Northeast United States under the emission scenario RCP 8.5.
Rates are reported as median values across projected data from 9 Global Climate Models.
Fig 7.
Trends of projected water deficit (PET-precipitation) in the 21st century during silking (R1) through physiological maturity (R6) at160 GDD intervals for full and short season corn cultivars planted at (a) Business-as-usual dates. (b)14-days before the last spring freeze, and (c)1-day after the last spring freeze, at three locations in the Northeast United States under emission scenarios of RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Solid and dashed lines are median trends of data predicted by nine Global Climate Models and shaded areas represent standard error of the mean.