Fig 1.
Risk pathways of LSD introduction from the at-risk area into France.
In grey, the modality estimated in this study.
Table 1.
Summary of the input variables used to calculate the risk of LSDV being introduced in France through Stomoxys travelling inside trucks transporting live animals (cattle and horses).
Fig 2.
Reported and posterior predicted numbers of infected vectors [A] and Posterior probability of LSDV surviving in Stomoxys calcitrans [B].
[A] The blue dots refer to the experimental results reported by [13], and the boxplots refer to the distribution of model predictions using the estimated posterior distribution; [B] Time refers to the number of days after an infective blood meal. The solid black lines and the red dots show the 95% credible interval and the median of the posterior distribution.
Fig 3.
Conceptual framework for the estimation of the risk of lumpy skin disease being imported into France through vectors.
P1 to P10 are probabilities defined in the section named “Probabilities considered in the model”; Circular markers: animals; Triangular markers: vectors; Solid lines: transmission route for animals; Dotted lines: transmission route for vector; Blank circles: herd/farm in the area at-risk; Shaded circle: herd/farm in France.
Table 2.
Probabilities of LSDV being introduced in France by Stomoxys travelling with cattle or horses transported from the Balkan countries.
Fig 4.
Distribution of probabilities that vectors inside trucks of animals (cattle or horses) transmit LSD to native animals and sensitivity analysis.
A, C, E, G, and I represent the probabilities; B, D, F, H and J represent the sensitivity analyses (Spearman rank correlation coefficients are presented in decreasing order of importance).