Fig 1.
Reported weekly malaria cases between 2011 and 2015.
Weekly malaria reported cases from the beginning of 2011 until end of 2015 in Central Equatoria State (CES), Western Bahr El Ghazal State (WBZ) and Warrap State (WRP). The data was obtained from National Malaria Control Programme of South Sudan (NMCP).
Fig 2.
Population density of South Sudan 2009.
Fig 3.
South Sudan selected state analysis map.
Fig 4.
Malaria transmission model diagram.
Flow diagram for Human and Mosquito infection model.
Fig 5.
Parameters estimation by fitting model to weekly malaria cases of CES.
The deterministic model (for both human and vector) trajectories and model assessment (lines) run against the CES data (points) with ϵ = 91.60, b = 0.4356804, α1 = 0.02169197 (duration of infections 46.1), σi = 0.6792, α3 = 0.5882 and initial state value (S = 882846, E = 0, I = 300, A = 0, R = 0, X = 600, Y = 0, Z = 0) with the mean and the median as well as the 95th and 50th percentiles of the replicated simulations are displayed.
Fig 6.
Parameters estimation by fitting model to weekly malaria cases of WBGZ.
The deterministic model (for both human and vector) trajectories and model assessment (lines) run against the WBGZ data (points) for 2011, with ϵ = 79.50, b = 0.79836, α1 = 0.025, α3 = 0.01785714, σi = 0.06274 and initial state value (S = 266745, E = 0, I = 200, A = 0, R = 0, X = 500, Y = 0, Z = 0); the mean and the median as well as the 95th and 50th percentiles of the replicated simulations are displayed.
Fig 7.
Parameters estimation by fitting model to weekly malaria cases of WRP.
The deterministic model (for both human and vector) trajectories and model assessment (lines) run against the WRP data (points), with ϵ = 56.0, b = 0.63984, α1 = 0.0191938, α3 = 0.05, σi = 0.789852 and initial state value (S = 778342, E = 0, I = 200, A = 0, R = 0, X = 500, Y = 0, Z = 0); the mean and the median as well as the 95th and 50th percentiles of the replicated simulations are displayed.
Table 1.
Model parameters: Description and value.
Fig 8.
Model validation by fitting to malaria cases on weekely basis between 2011-2015.
The posterior mean densities of the mosquito bite rate ϵ in CES, WBGZ and WRP with 95% credibility interval at a chosen number of 10,000 iterations.
Table 2.
Intervention parameters.
Fig 9.
Sensitivity index of with respect to χ.
Sensitivity index of with respect to χ for different values of V.
Fig 10.
Sensitivity index of with respect to V.
Sensitivity index of with respect to V for different values of χ.
Fig 11.
Prediction of malaria infections.
Projected cases of malaria in hundred thousands of people with: No interventions of LLINs, coverage based on 2009 LLINs distribution, and additional coverage of LLINs; (A) in Central Equatoria, (B) in Western Bahr-El-Ghazal and (C) in Warrap.
Fig 12.
Prediction of basic reproduction number.
Reproduction number as a function of Mosquito bite rate and LLINs coverage, we observe that the optimum coverage window for falciparum malaria transmission is 80–90.