Fig 1.
The Gulf as defined in this study.
The map shows the approximate extent of actual and/or claimed Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) as used here, notably to allocate fisheries catches. Note that the maritime limits and boundaries shown on this map are not authoritative regarding the delimitation of international maritime boundaries. Source: Natural Earth version 4.0.0 - http://www.naturalearthdata.com/. Map created using QGIS 2.8.2 –Wien.
Table 1.
Indicators and their composite variables for each dimension used to assess the vulnerability of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries.
Fig 2.
Projected change in species number (top), species invasion (middle) and extinction (bottom) in the Gulf by 2050 (left) and 2090 (right) relative to 2010. Results are presented for an average of the three niche models and for the RCP 8.5 scenario. The color bars represent number of species. Source: Natural Earth version 4.0.0 - http://www.naturalearthdata.com/. Figure created using MATLAB 2017b.
Fig 3.
Change in habitat suitability for focal species in the Gulf in 2050 (left) and 2090 (right) relative to 2010. Results are presented for scenario RCP 8.5 and as averages across all three models. A decline in habitat suitability (in percentage) is shown in red, whereas increases in habitat suitability are represented in blue. Source: Natural Earth version 4.0.0 - http://www.naturalearthdata.com/. Figure created using MATLAB 2017b.
Fig 4.
Change in habitat suitability for all charismatic species in the Economic Exclusive Zones (EEZs) of the Gulf in 2050 and 2090.
Results are presented for scenario RCP 8.5 and as averages across all three models. The error bars represent the intermodal range.
Fig 5.
Change in habitat suitability for the 5 charismatic species in the Gulf in 2090 relative to 2010.
Results are presented for scenario RCP 8.5 and as averages across all three models. The species considered include Tursiops aduncus (top left), Sousa chinensis (top right), Chelonia mydas (centre left), Eretmochelys imbricata (centre right), and Dugong dugon (bottom). The habitat suitability index is scaled from 0 to 1 and is the same for all species. Source: Natural Earth version 4.0.0 - http://www.naturalearthdata.com/. Figure created using MATLAB 2017b.
Fig 6.
Change in catch potential in the Economic Exclusive Zones (EEZs) of the Gulf in 2090.
Results are for scenario RCP 8.5 scenario as predicted by an average of the three niche models (BIOCLIM, NPPEN, and ENFA). The error bars represent inter-model range.
Table 2.
Relative vulnerabilities of national economies to climate change impacts on fisheries.
Note that for Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Iran, countries with fisheries in other seas beyond the Gulf, relevant variables in the vulnerability assessment were pro-rated to the proportion of total catches derived from the Gulf only. Countries’ rankings are from most (1) to least vulnerable (8).
Fig 7.
Relative vulnerability of national economies in 2090 to climate change impacts on fisheries in the Gulf.
Note that for Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Iran, countries with fisheries in other seas beyond the Gulf, relevant variables in the vulnerability assessment were pro-rated to the proportion of total catches derived from the Gulf. Source: Natural Earth version 4.0.0 - http://www.naturalearthdata.com/. Map created using QGIS 2.8.2 –Wien.