Fig 1.
Overview of the southern part of the original distribution range of the El Oro parakeet in southwestern Ecuador.
The extent of the range was inferred from the altitudinal band between 600–1100 m (grey), where the El Oro parakeet was discovered. Forest fragments in the area are depicted in green. The four study areas of Cerro Azul, Buenaventura, Nalacapa and Guayacan are indicated by the dashed outlines, with the Buenaventura reserve (solid black outline) being the only protected site within the area.
Fig 2.
Altitudes of El Oro parakeets.
The birds were observed in the years 2002 (998 ± 36 m), 2011 (1061 ± 63 m), and 2012 (1081 ± 23 m). For the years 1985 and 1986, literature values of the distribution range are given (600–1100 m). The El Oro parakeets shifted their range uphill at a rate of 8.5 m per year (depicted by the blue line).
Fig 3.
Projected upslope shift of the El Oro parakeets’ distribution range between the years 2000 and 2100.
The bolt black line indicates the altitudes of parakeets between 1985 and 2015. Each colored line represents the mean altitude of parakeets derived from the single CMIP5 model runs for the four scenarios RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, for the years 2016 to 2100. The maximum extent of the distribution range (mean ± 250 m) is shaded grey. Boxplots indicate the altitudinal distribution of parakeets in the years 2050 and 2100 for each of the four scenarios RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5.
Fig 4.
Probability density, cumulative density and survival function for the four scenarios RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 for the year 2100.
The altitudinal extent of the original range (600–1100 m) is shaded grey.
Fig 5.
Original range and predicted ranges.
The original range (light grey) and the predicted ranges for the years 2050 (intense color) and 2100 (hatched) are depicted for four climate change scenarios in the four study areas of Cerro Azul (top row), Buenaventura (second row), Nalacapa (third row), and Guayacan (bottom row). Ranges predicted for the RCP2.6 scenario are colored dark blue, for the RCP4.5 scenario light blue, for the RCP6.0 scenario orange, and for the RCP8.5 scenario red. Forests fragments are shaded green.
Table 1.
Habitat availability and connectivity for the original range and the projected ranges for 2050 and 2100 under four RCP scenarios.