Fig 1.
Distribution of aridity classes in Senegal.
The small-ruminant follow-up demographic surveys were located in the Ndiagne municipality (Louga region) and Kolda area. This map was adapted from Hammami et al., 2016 [18] under a CC BY license, with permission from Dianne Cartwright—PLoS ONE, original copyright 2016. It was generated using data sources from Zomer et al., 2006 [25] and Trabucco et al., 2009 [26]; spatial resolution: 10 arc minutes.
Fig 2.
Demographic rates in Louga sheep and Kolda goats.
Upper plots (A and B) show the monthly parturition rate for females older than 10 months, and the annual prolificacy rates. The lower plots show the natural mortality rates (without offtake) for three age classes.
Fig 3.
Theoretical population immunity rate dynamics over two years with annual vaccination campaigns, illustration adapted from Hammami et al., 2016 [18].
For simplicity, only animals up to two-year old were shown.
Table 1.
Distribution of indicators of PVIR according to the PPR vaccination scenarios (combination of vaccination schedule, month, and coverage (%)) for a sheep population in Louga, northern Senegal.
A total of 10,000 simulations were run for each scenario. Q02.5: quantile 2.5%, Q97.5: quantile 97.5%; Tthr: time spent above the 70% threshold; MPVIR: mean PVIR over the PPR control stage; PVIR48: PVIR at the end of the PPR control stage.
Table 2.
Distribution of indicators of PVIR according to the PPR vaccination scenarios (combination of vaccination schedule and coverage (%)) for a goat population in Kolda, southern Senegal.
A total of 10,000 simulations were run for each scenario. Q02.5: quantile 2.5%, Q97.5: quantile 97.5%; Tthr: time spent above the 70% threshold; MPVIR: mean PVIR over the PPR control stage; PVIR48: PVIR at the end of the PPR control stage.
Fig 4.
PVIR dynamics during a four-year control stage (2F2P schedule) in a sheep population from Louga (northern Senegal: Red line) and in a goat population from Kolda (southern Senegal: Blue line), with different vaccination coverages and the first vaccination round implemented in October.
The vaccination coverages represent the proportion of vaccinated animals among the immunocompetent animals (> 3 months). Each line represents the PVIR for the whole population. The 70% PVIR threshold is represented by a black dotted line.
Fig 5.
Relative difference in time spent above the 70% threshold (Tthr) for post-vaccination PVIR with respect to the 2F2P vaccination schedule for Louga sheep, northern Senegal.
The red, solid line indicates the reference situation (2F2P), and the red, dashed lines above and under it indicate a positive or negative relative 7%-difference with this reference situation.
Fig 6.
Relative difference in the mean PVIR (MPVIR) with respect to the 2F2P vaccination schedule for Louga sheep, northern Senegal.
The red, solid line indicates the reference situation (2F2P), and the red, dashed lines above and under it indicate a positive or negative relative 7%-difference with this reference situation.
Fig 7.
Relative difference in the PVIR at the end of the PPR control stage (PVIR48) with respect to the 2F2P vaccination schedule for Louga sheep, northern Senegal.
The red, solid line indicates the reference situation (2F2P), and the red, dashed lines above and under it indicate a positive or negative relative 7%-difference with the reference situation.
Fig 8.
Relative difference in indicators of post-vaccination PVIR with respect to the 2F2P vaccination schedule for Kolda goats, southern Senegal.
The red, solid line indicates the reference situation (2F2P), and the red, dashed lines above and under it indicate a positive or negative relative 7%-difference with the reference situation.