Fig 1.
Occurrence records of Ixodes ricinus derived from various sources.
Blue crosses indicate the original set of occurrence records; yellow circles are occurrence records retained after filtering the data.
Table 1.
Summary of general circulation models (GCMs) explored in our analysis.
Fig 2.
Current and future potential distribution of Ixodes ricinus based on present-day and future climatic conditions.
Left-hand maps show potential distributions whereas right-hand maps indicate the uncertainty.
Fig 3.
Summary of the binary modeled potential distributions of Ixodes ricinus under future conditions to show suitable areas and to illustrate differences between representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and time periods.
Blue color indicates model suitability under both present and future suitability (light blue denotes low confidence and dark blue denotes high confidence), red color represents predicted expansion areas in the future suitability (light red = low confidence, dark red = high confidence); dark gray areas are not suitable.
Fig 4.
MOP calculations for model transfers from present to future climate scenarios for 17 GCMs (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in 2050 and 2070.
Left-hand panels show the average MOP distance among models (dark red represents high average and dark blue represents low average). Right-hand panels show the number of models out of range (dark blue represents areas with most frequent strict extrapolation).