Fig 1.
Adherence at each stage is estimated to provide a cumulative reduction in the likelihood of the infant acquiring HIV, from a 30% chance of transmission in the total absence of PMTCT, to a 2% chance when all stages are adhered to.
Table 1.
WHO 2010 guidelines for South Africa PMTCT.
Fig 2.
Conceptual diagram of the model representing relative percentages of infant infections that are attributable to stigma-related and non-stigma-related barriers and to drug ineffectiveness.
Fig 3.
Conditional dependency relationships among model variables.
Table 2.
Scenario probabilities for the percentage of women who are accessing PMTCT at each stage in the model, for ideal, low and status quo scenarios, for women who had AZT or HAART initiated with ANC.
Table 3.
Transmission rates corresponding to each combination of 3 treatment regimens during pregnancy (AZT, HAART or none), infant adherence or non-adherence to NVP for 6 weeks post-delivery, and adherence or non-adherence to feeding guidelines.
Fig 4.
Percentage of HIV-positive women eligible for AZT prophylaxis who are cumulatively lost at each stage of the PMTCT cascade.
Fig 5.
Percentage of HIV-positive women eligible for HAART who are cumulatively lost at each stage of the PMTCT cascade.
Fig 6.
Distribution of infant infections (median values) as attributable to individual factors.
Fig 7.
Results from the uncertainty analysis for Option A (red) and Option B+ (blue) scenarios and the idealised (green) scenario.
The box plots show variation in the cohort-median mother-to-child transmission rates over 10,000 simulated cohorts. For each scenario, the box denotes the interquartile range (IQR: 25th to 75th percentiles) and the middle line denotes the median (50th percentile). Whiskers capture values up to twice the width of the IQR, while those exceeding this are shown as outliers (blue scattered tail).