Fig 1.
Primary HPV testing with partial genotyping and cytology triage management flow chart.
Table 1.
Baseline assumptions for key model parameters, and data sources.
Table 2.
Sensitivity analysis ranges for key model parameters.
Fig 2.
Predicted age standardised rates (ASR) for: (a) CIN2/3 per 1,000 women, (b) cervical cancer diagnosis per 100,000 women and (c) cervical cancer mortality per 100,000 women; base case scenario shown.
*Ages considered are 0–84 years; age standardised rates are standardised to the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2001 ‘Series B’ population estimates.
Fig 3.
Predicted age standardised rates (ASR) for: (a) CIN2/3 per 1,000 women and (b) 1,000 women screened, (c) cervical cancer diagnosis per 100,000 women and (d) cervical cancer mortality per 100,000 women; base-case and counterfactual scenarios 1–3 are shown.
*Ages considered are 0–84 years; age standardised rates are standardised to the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2001 ‘Series B’ population estimates.
Fig 4.
(a) ASR per 1,000 women and (b) case numbers of histologically detected high grade cervical abnormalities by age group, presented with (c) ASR and (d) case numbers of histologically detected high grade cervical abnormalities by HPV type; base case scenario shown.
*Ages considered are 0–84 years; age standardised rates are standardised using the Australian 2001 Standard Population; case numbers are calculated using the Australian Bureau of Statistics ‘Series B’ population estimates.
Fig 5.
(a) (c) (e) Age standardised rates and (b) (d) (f) case numbers of cervical cancer incidence by age group, HPV type and stage at diagnosis; base case scenario shown.
*Ages considered are 0–84 years; age standardised rates are standardised using the Australian 2001 Standard Population; case numbers are calculated using the Australian Bureau of Statistics ‘Series B’ population estimates.
Fig 6.
Modelled cumulative lifetime risk of cervical cancer mortality by birth year of base case scenario presented with timing of milestones in cervical cancer prevention initiatives.
* Cumulative lifetime risk is calculated to age 84 years.