Fig 1.
The monthly number of BD cases in Beijing, 1970–2012.
Fig 2.
Results of ACF and PACF for time series analysis using 1-step non-seasonal and 1-step seasonal differences.
Table 1.
Comparison of ARIMA models.
Table 2.
Parameters in ARIMA(1,1,1)(2,1,1)12 model.
Fig 3.
Cross-correlation between prewhitened logarithmic BD cases and weather variables.
Table 3.
ARIMAX models with different meteorological factors.
Fig 4.
Results of prediction by the ARIMAX model with covariates of temperature at lag 7 and rainfall at lag 12.
Table 4.
The MSE of prediction by different ARIMAX models from January 2005 to December 2012.