Table 1.
Explanations of the nomination and photo fads (excluding those that are potentially offensive).
Fig 1.
Fitted models against data for different fads.
Fitted simple and complex contagion models and data for search volumes as a percentage of peak, ordered by log-likelihood difference from best fit to worst. Fads with potentially offensive content are included for completeness, but without sketches.
Fig 2.
Results for the Icebucket Challenge.
Prediction of search volume for Icebucket Challenge, based on data available at the time (circles) and compared to the final volume (crosses). Top plot: complex contagion model; bottom plot: simple contagion model.
Table 2.
The log-likelihood difference between the simple and complex contagion models. (***) is very strong evidence, (**) is strong evidence, (*) is positive evidence, (.) is no significant evidence for either model, (–) is strong evidence against. † means that AIC selected models with two peaks.