Fig 1.
Flowchart showing selection of renal transplant patients.
Table 1.
Kidney transplant characteristics of the development and validation databases.
Fig 2.
(A) Mean trajectories of serum creatinine resulting from k-means for the longitudinal data clustering method superposed with individual profiles over the first 12 months post-transplantation. (B) Kaplan-Meier estimates (±95% confidence intervals) of graft survival according to the first-year creatinine profile cluster. The free graft failure survival was significantly associated with clusters (log-rank test, p<0.0001).
Fig 3.
Out-of-bag data variable importance values obtained by random survival forest analysis.
(A) full model and (B) final model. The log-rank splitting rule was used.
Fig 4.
Partial plots for the continuous variables retained in the random survival forest analysis as predictors of graft failure.
The vertical axis represents the predicted survival at 10 years for a given predictor, after adjusting for all other predictors. Points indicate partial values and dashed lines are ±2 standard error bars.
Fig 5.
Conditional inference tree applied for graft survival with predicted Kaplan-Meier curves in the terminal nodes.
The tree was obtained using recursive partitioning for censored response in a conditional inference framework implemented in ‘party’ R-package.
Fig 6.
Scoring system for computing AdGFS values.
ScrM12 = serum creatinine at 12 months post-transplantation. ProtM12 = proteinuria at 12 months post-transplantation. Scr = serum creatinine. dnDSA = de novo donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies. NDSA = non donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies.
Fig 7.
Comparison of Kaplan-Meier graft survival curves for the four risk groups namely low-, intermediate-, high-, and very high- risk of graft loss in the development dataset (solid lines) and in the external validation dataset (dashed lines).
Patients were partitioned according to the calculated score value: low risk (0), intermediate risk (2 or 4), high risk (6 or 8), and very high risk (10 or 12). Graft survival in the development and validation datasets did not differ within each of the four risk groups.
Table 2.
Performance characteristics of adjustable graft failure score (AdGFS) for cutpoints 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 and for different times over 10 years post-transplantation.
Table 3.
Goodness-of-fit test for external validation of the AdGFS score.