Fig 1.
ENSO event indicators: El Niño years (black), La Niña years (grey).
Standardized variables.
Fig 2.
Logs wheat export prices: July 2000June 2016.
Index July 2000–June 2001 = 100.
Table 1.
Key economic indicators of the global wheat market.
Table 2.
Contemporaneous correlation between of El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral phases and main economic variables.
Table 3.
Order, case and number of cointegrating relationships.
Fig 3.
Scatter plot predicted (X-axis) and actual (Y-axis) values for some endogenous variables.
Fig 4.
Bootstrapped global impulse response distributions: El Niño (black), La Niña (grey) shocks.
Table 4.
Impact of an El Niño and La Niña shocks on wheat yield anomalies (in percent).
Table 5.
Impact of an El Niño and La Niña shocks on wheat export prices (in percent).
Table 6.
Impact of an El Niño and La Niña shocks on wheat exports (in percent).
Table 7.
Impact of an El Niño and La Niña shocks on stock-to-use ratio.
Table 8.
Wheat export shares (percentage).
Fig 5.
Varying wheat trade weights, El Niño and La Niña: Yield anomalies and error bars impulse responses.
Fig 6.
Varying wheat trade weights, El Niño and La Niña: Export prices and error bars impulse responses.
Fig 7.
La Niña IR responses: MEI, SST, ONI and SOI indicators.
Table 9.
Contemporaneous correlation matrix of the MEI, SST, ONI and SOI indicators during El Niño, La Niña phases: 2000.7-2016.6.