Fig 1.
Flowchart of development of the SEIAR model.
Table 1.
Parameter definitions and values within the SEIAR model.
Fig 2.
Flowchart of development of the SEIARV model.
Fig 3.
Epidemic curves of two selected influenza A(H1N1) outbreaks at school.
A, epidemic curve of influenza A(H1N1) new cases in a middle school, 2013 (The starting date of the outbreak was on January 8, and the duration of the outbreak was 19 days). B, epidemic curve of influenza A(H1N1) new cases in a college, 2009 (The starting date of the outbreak was on November 7, and the duration of the outbreak was 23 days).
Table 2.
Descriptive characteristics of 29 influenza A(H1N1) outbreaks at schools in Changsha city, China, 2009–2013.
Table 3.
The reproduction number and interventions in each outbreak at schools in Changsha city, China, 2009–2013.
Fig 4.
Curve fitting of two selected outbreaks with SEIAR model.
A, curve fitting of data from the baseline of the outbreak simulation from January 8 to 16, 2013. B, curve fitting of data from the baseline of the outbreak simulation from November 7 to 13, 2009. Prevalence = I/N, where I is the infectious and N is the total number of persons.
Table 4.
Simulated effectiveness of single intervention in two selected outbreaks.
Table 5.
Simulated effectiveness of 2- and 3-intervention combinations in two selected outbreaks.
Table 6.
Simulated effectiveness of 4-, 5- and 6-intervention combinations in two selected outbreaks.
Fig 5.
Sensitivity analysis of the parameters ω, ω', γ', k and p based on the outbreak in 2009.
The numbers of splits of the five parameters (ω = 0.53, ω' = 0.83, γ' = 0.24, k = 0.5, and p = 0.42) in our study were 614, 972, 263, 500 and 415, respectively. TAR: total attack rate; Iso: isolation; T: therapeutics; P: prophylactics; VP70: 70% of individuals vaccinated prior to the outbreak; VD70: 70% individuals vaccinated each day during the outbreak; S1w: school closure for one week.
Fig 6.
Sensitivity analysis of the parameters ω, ω', γ', k and p based on the outbreak in 2013.
The numbers of splits of the five parameters (ω = 0.53, ω' = 0.83, γ' = 0.24, k = 0.5, and p = 0.42) in our study were 614, 972, 263, 500 and 415, respectively. TAR: total attack rate; Iso: isolation; T: therapeutics; P: prophylactics; VP70: 70% of individuals vaccinated prior to the outbreak; VD70: 70% individuals vaccinated each day during the outbreak; S1w: school closure for one week.