Fig 1.
Malaria positive cases and incidence rate, 2014 (from CMPE Malaria Information System).
Fig 2.
Central and southern Lao provinces.
Fig 3.
Land-use, 2014, central and southern Laos (from DALAM data).
Fig 4.
Grid of 10×10 km cells as geographical units.
Table 1.
Three sub-models have been developed from environmental, climatic and demographic data.
Table 2.
Risk evaluation models build on the top of the three sub-models Y4, Y7, Y10.
Table 3.
Estimation of likelihood of presence of An. dirus s.l., An. maculatus s.l., and An. minimus s.l. and insecticide use for agriculture, in different land-use types.
Scores for mosquito presence are from 0 to 10, with 0 the lowest and 10 the highest. Scores for insecticide use is from 1 to 4, with 1 the lowest and 4 the highest insecticide use. Land use types and codes are taken from the land use classification used by the Ministry of Agriculture.
Fig 5.
Topographic index TOPMODEL derived from DEM SRTM-4 (90 m resolution).
Fig 6.
Annual mean temperatures (left panel) and annual mean rainfall (right panel) in Laos from 1950–2000 (from WorldClim—Global Climate Data).
Fig 7.
Probability of presence of An. maculatus s.l. (left panel), An. dirus s.l. (middle panel), and An. minimus s.l. (right panel) in central-southern Laos, based on land use favorable conditions only (Y3). Red color indicates higher probability.
Fig 8.
Probability of Anopheles mosquito presence (An. maculatus s.l., An. dirus s.l., and An. minimus s.l. combined) (Y4) based on land use (Y1), temperature (Y2), rainfall/topography (Y3), in central-southern Laos.
Red color indicates higher probability.
Fig 9.
Left panel: Probability of insecticide presence (Y7), based on land use, topography, and bed net coverage, in central-southern Laos. Right panel: Risk of Anopheles mosquitoes to be exposed to insecticides and to become resistant (Y12) in central-southern Laos. Red color indicates higher risk.
Fig 10.
Vulnerability of the human population to Anopheles mosquitoes (Y10), combining human density and poverty (Y8) and number of ITNs per person (Y9).
Fig 11.
Left panel: Risk of vulnerable human hosts to be exposed to Anopheles mosquitoes (Y11), based on probability of vector presence (Y4) and population vulnerability (Y10). Right panel: Risk of vulnerable human hosts to be exposed to potentially insecticide resistant malaria vectors (Y13).