Table 1.
Mean development time of DBM life stages at different constant temperatures.
Fig 1.
Development rates of immature stages of DBM: Egg (a), larva (b) and pupa (c).
Blue dots are the observed means ± SE, the solid red line represents the selected model output, while the dotted blue lines represent the upper and lower 95% confidence limits. Bars represent standard deviations.
Fig 2.
Temperature-dependent mortalities of immature life stages of DBM: Egg (a), larva (b) and pupa (c).
Blue dots are the observed means, the solid red line represents the selected model output, while dotted blue lines represent the upper and lower 95% confidence intervals of selected models.
Table 2.
Lifespan and fecundity of DBM at constant temperatures.
Fig 3.
Temperature-dependent total egg production (a) and age-related cumulative proportion of egg production (b).
Age of the females at 50% oviposition is indicated. Dots represent data points. The upper and lower 95% confidence intervals of the model are indicated.
Table 3.
Summary of the life table of DBM at different constant temperatures.
Fig 4.
Population growth parameters of DBM estimated over a range of five constant temperatures.
rm, intrinsic rate of natural increase; Ro, net reproduction rate; GRR, gross reproduction rate; GT, mean generation time; λ, finite rate of increase; and DT, doubling time.
Table 4.
Estimated population growth parameters of DBM at different constant temperatures.
Table 5.
Validation of the developed phenology model through comparison of observed and simulated population growth parameters of DBM life stages.
Table 6.
Changes between the current (2013) and future (2055) maximum and minimum temperatures on selected farms along Mt. Kilimanjaro transect and the Taita hills transect.
All current, future and their differences in temperatures were recorded in degrees centigrade (°C) and altitude in metres above sea level (masl).
Fig 5.
Changes in the establishment, abundance and population growth rates of DBM along altitudinal gradients of Mt. Kilimanjaro and Taita hills.
Establishment risk indices (ERI) of Mt. Kilimanjaro (a) and Taita hills (d); Generation indices (GI) of Mt. Kilimanjaro (b) and Taita hills (e); and Activity indices (AI) of Mt. Kilimanjaro (c) and Taita hills (f) *KisangeB = Kisangesangeni B, KisaMadukani = Kisangesangeni Madukani.
Fig 6.
Changed establishment, abundance and population growth rates across climate change scenarios of Mt. Kilimanjaro.
Current 2013 distribution and abundance of DBM: (a) ERI, (b) GI and (c) AI; future 2055 distribution and abundance of DBM: (d) ERI, (e) GI and (f) AI. Absolute change in distribution and abundance between current and future scenarios: (g) ERI, (h) GI and (i) AI. ERI = Establishment Risk Index, GI = Generation Index and AI = Activity Index. *KisangeB = Kisangesangeni B, KisaMadukani = Kisangesangeni Madukani.
Fig 7.
Altered establishment, abundance and population growth rates across climate change scenarios of Taita hills.
Current 2013 distribution and abundance of DBM: (a) ERI, (b) GI and (c) AI; future 2055 distribution and abundance of DBM: (d) ERI, (e) GI and (f) AI. Absolute change in distribution and abundance between current and future scenarios: (g) ERI, (h) GI and (i) AI. ERI = Establishment Risk Index, GI = Generation Index and AI = Activity Index.