Fig 1.
Spawning condition females and valid sets by month.
Percentage of SERFS samples of females within 48 hours of spawning (left) and number of sets (right) where a histological sample was taken, by species and sampling month.
Table 1.
Input variables considered in logistic regression model.
Table 2.
Number of collections from MARMAP/SERFS and FWC fishery-independent data with histological sampling (Samples), with number of sets containing females within 48 hours of spawning (Female Spawners), number of sets containing females and males within 48 hours of spawning (All Spawners), number of sets with three or more histologically-sampled fish for the species (Valid Sets), and number Valid Sets within the high-resolution multibeam bathymetry (MB Valid Sets).
Fig 2.
Fishery-independent sampling and multispecies spawning locations.
On left, fishery-independent samples of female fish within 48 hours of spawning, by species. Gray shapes denote histological samples, black shapes denote collections of spawning condition females, with triangles denoting chevron traps, diamonds denoting short bottom longline, and circles denoting long bottom longline. On right, sites where females of multiple species have been captured in spawning location at the same time (labeled by collection year). Green boxes denote no-take marine protected areas. Basemap courtesy ESRI and National Park Service.
Table 3.
Summary statistics for water depth (m), salinity (ppt), and temperature (°C) during SERFS observations of spawning condition females.
Table 4.
Number of gear deployments with multispecies observations of spawning females from SERFS.
Fig 3.
Multi-year observations of spawning.
Sites at which spawning condition females were collected in multiple years (two-digit labels) for Vermilion Snapper (top left), Black Sea Bass (top right), Snowy Grouper (bottom left), and Scamp (bottom right) relative to bathymetry, histological sampling locations (Xs), marine protected areas and SMZs (blue/gray boxes).
Table 5.
Summary statistics (mean ± standard deviation) for apparent use of multi-year spawning locations.
Multi-year spawning location size computed as minimum convex polygon containing all collections within a site.
Table 6.
Timing of spawning (gray shading) and peak spawning (black shading) for exploited Atlantic Ocean reef fish stocks off the southeastern United States.
Months in bold denote core SERFS core fishery-independent sampling months. See S1 Table for references.
Fig 4.
SERFS fishery-independent samples of female fish within 48 hours of spawning (denoted by size of circles; values vary by species) relative to lunar phase and month. Numbers denote histologically examined fish.
Fig 5.
Spawning locations relative to 3D bathymetry.
SERFS fishery-independent samples of female fish within 48 hours of spawning, by species, relative to multibeam (MB; rainbow gradient) and Coastal Relief Model (CRM; grayscale gradient) bathymetry near Northern South Carolina MPA (top), Georgetown Hole, SC (middle), and Edisto MPA (bottom). Spawning condition females are shown as floating 3D shapes above SERFS samples (black triangles). Figure created in ArcScene (ESRI, Redlands, CA) using Z-values from MB and CRM with 50-fold vertical exaggeration.
Fig 6.
Spawning locations relative to bathymetric slope and curvature.
SERFS fishery-independent samples of female fish within 48 hours of spawning, by species, relative to multibeam (MB) and Coastal Relief Model (CRM) bathymetric slope (left) and curvature (right) in area north of Edisto MPA off South Carolina. SERFS histologically-evaluated collection sites are shown as gray Xs in right panel.
Table 7.
Logistic regression model fit statistics for probability of encountering a fish within 48 hours of spawning, with percent deviance explained (i.e. percent variability explained by inclusion of additional variable); cross-validation results for Area Under the Curve (AUC), False Positive Rate (FPR) and False Negative Rate (FNR); and percentage of 500 runs where random variable inclusion in model outperformed model-selected bathymetric variable (‘Random test’).
See Methods for additional details.
Fig 7.
Probability of encountering a spawning condition female Red Snapper.
Predicted mean (left) and standard error (right) probabilities of observing spawning condition female Red Snapper at time and conditions of peak spawning, relative to external validation observations (+). Raster color-coding based on percent clip. Green boxes denote no-take marine protected areas and SMZs. Basemap courtesy ESRI Ocean Basemap and partners.
Fig 8.
Probability of encountering a spawning condition female Vermilion Snapper.
Predicted mean (left) and standard error (right) probabilities of observing spawning condition female Vermilion Snapper at time and conditions of peak spawning, relative to external validation observations (+). Raster color-coding based on 2.5 standard deviations from the mean. Green boxes denote no-take marine protected areas and SMZs. Basemap courtesy ESRI Ocean Basemap and partners.
Fig 9.
Maps of Edisto MPA (green) square and surrounding shelf edge showing A) Depth from multibeam bathymetry and SERFS samples with spawning condition (stars) and non-spawning condition (Xs) female vermilion snapper, B) BPI from Benthic Terrain Modeler and squares denoting habitat type (HB: hardbottom, NH: not hardbottom, PH: potential hardbottom) from SEAMAP-SA, C) Model predictions of spawning locations at month and lunar phase of peak spawning and MARMAP fishery-dependent samples of spawning condition female Vermilion Snapper (crosses), and D) standard error in model predictions of peak spawning.
Fig 10.
Probability of encountering a spawning condition female Black Sea Bass.
Predicted mean (left) and standard error (right) probabilities of observing spawning condition female Black Sea Bass at time and conditions of peak spawning, relative to external validation observations (+). Raster color-coding based on 2.5 standard deviations from the mean. Green boxes denote no-take marine protected areas and SMZs. Basemap courtesy ESRI Ocean Basemap and partners.
Fig 11.
External validation of spawning predictions.
Boxplots of model-predicted Z-score standardized probabilities of collecting a spawning female underlying locations where spawning females were collected by Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC; Lowerre-Barbieri et al. [39]), LGL Ecological Research Associates ([67]), MARMAP Fishery Dependent Sampling (MMFD), and anecdotal reports from fishers (‘Tishler’) collected by Tishler-Meadows [66]. Z-Scores above zero were interpreted as providing support for model predictions. Inset numbers denote sample sizes.