Fig 1.
Goodness of fit of the simulated statewide average probability of a field working day.
Predictions of the probability of a field working day during the 1960–2000 baseline period (black line) from LARS-WG versus the probability determined by USDA-NASS weekly crop progress reports from 1959–2010 (open circles).
Fig 2.
Simulated cumulative average water balance of Illinois.
Potential evapotranspiration is calculated using the Thornthwaite equation. All values are calculated as the mean of the individual district mean values with water balance calculated at the end of each month with a linear interpolation between months. The black line indicates the average monthly cumulative water balance. Grey lines indicate the average 95th and 5th quantiles of monthly cumulative water balance with area in which the lower quantile goes below zero marked with red polygons. The dotted vertical lines identify the 90th percentile fall and spring frost dates. Mean GDDs were calculated in degrees Celsius with maximum daily temperature of 30°C and minimum daily temperature of 10°C.
Fig 3.
Changes in the number of months in deficit between May and August to the baseline simulation period of 1960–2000 for three different climate change scenarios.
Projections are driven by NCAR CCSM3 and downscaled using LARS-WG. Each district contains 1000 years of simulation for each scenario and time horizon. Field working day changes are relative changes in mean number of April through May field working days from the simulated baseline. Arrows pointing up indicate an increase in average number of field working days while those pointing down indicate a decrease.
Fig 4.
Simulated state average probability of a field working day over day of year.
Projections are for four different climate scenarios (Baseline, B1, A1B, A2) and under two different time horizons: (a) years 2046–2065, and (b) years 2080–2099.