Fig 1.
Location of Poyang Lake and the coring sites.
Fig 2.
Results of meteorological and hydrological simulations (1700–1899).
(A1) ECHAM5-simulated monthly precipitation (mm); (A2) Simulated precipitation anomaly (%); (B1) ECHAM5-simulated monthly potential evaporation (mm); (B2) Simulated potential evaporation anomaly (%); (C1) WATLAC-simulated monthly runoff (m3) of Poyang Lake; (C2) Simulated runoff anomaly (%).
Fig 3.
HRT anomaly (ΔΔHRT) in Model 1 and its change process.
(A) ΔHRT calculated with observed meteorological and hydrological data for 1800–2008; (B) ΔHRT calculated with simulated meteorological and hydrological data for 1700–1899.
Fig 4.
Simulations of Model 2 and Mann-Kendall trend analyses.
Anomaly series of monthly algae biomass and the corresponding UFk index from 1955–2008 (A1) and 1700–1899 (A2); Anomaly series of monthly aquatic plant biomass and the corresponding UFk index from 1955–2008 (B1) and 1700–1899 (B2); Anomaly series of monthly TP content and the corresponding UFk index from 1955–2008 (C1) and 1700–1899 (C2).
Fig 5.
Validation of the Model 2 simulations (1700–1899).
(A) Comparison between pollen concentration anomaly from core ZK01 [51] and simulated algae biomass anomaly; (B) Comparison between TOC anomaly from core DCH [36] and simulated primary biomass anomaly; (C) Comparison between DI-TP from core WC-2 and simulated TP anomaly.
Fig 6.
(A) Observed TP concentrations and the corresponding HRTs for 12 years from 1984–2006; (B) Correlation between the observed TP concentrations and the corresponding HRTs for these years.
Fig 7.
Correlations between the simulated algae biomass and the TP content for 1955–2008 (A1) and 1700–1899 (A2); Correlations between simulated aquatic biomass and TP for 1955–2008 (B1) and 1700–1899 (B2).
Fig 8.
(A) Relationship between the simulated primary biomass and TP; (B) A S-shaped curve showing the growth pattern of the living organisms (redraw and modified from Rubin and Davidson, 2001, [95]).
Fig 9.
(A) Standardized HRT and simulated TP series from 1700–1899; (B) Comparison between ΔHRT and simulated TP from 1700–1899.